410
FXUS61 KLWX 300759
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
359 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will gradually build toward the area through
Friday night, before progressing offshore on Saturday. High
pressure will remain offshore through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Longwave troughing remains in place along the East Coast this
morning. A shortwave evident on water vapor imagery over the
Great Lakes will dive southeastward into the base of the trough
later today, eventually passing overhead this evening. As ascent
ahead of this trough overspreads the area, there should be an
uptick in cloud cover this afternoon, but the disturbance should
struggle to produce precipitation in the unseasonably dry post-
cold frontal airmass that will be in place (dewpoints only in
the 40s). A stray shower or storm can`t be ruled out this
afternoon across the Virginia Piedmont, but most locations
should remain dry. High temperatures today should only reach
into the low-mid 70s (60s mountains). A northwesterly breeze
will accompany the below normal temperatures.

The aforementioned shortwave trough will start to move off to
our east tonight. Large scale subsidence in the wake of the
departing trough will encourage high pressure to start to build
toward the area from the Great Lakes. Clear skies, light winds,
and low dewpoints will lead to an ideal setup for radiational
cooling. Temperatures should drop back into the 40s in most
locations tonight, with 30s possible in the typically cooler
mountain valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will build toward the area on Friday, before
eventually becoming centered overhead Friday night. The high
will shift offshore on Saturday as upper ridging starts to build
in aloft. Sunny skies are forecast for both Friday and
Saturday. High temperatures are expected to reach into the mid
70s on Friday. As the high moves offshore on Saturday, winds
will turn southerly which will lead to a slight warming trend
with highs near 80.

Friday night will be another cool night, with temperatures again
dropping back into the 40s for most. Cloud cover will start to
stream in from the west Saturday night, and a few showers may be
possible across western MD or the WV Panhandle late Saturday
night. The increasing clouds and southerly winds will result in
warmer temperatures Saturday night, with lows generally in the
upper 50s to near 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
By the end of the weekend, showers and thunderstorm chances
will increase for the Mid-Atlantic. Numerous shortwaves will
traverse the area Sunday through the middle portion of next
week. A few highlights of the period are Tuesday into Wednesday,
where some machine learning probabilities are elevated for the
potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms as a result
of a cold front passage across the area. Expect showers and
thunderstorm chances to be common over the next several days in
the long-term period with temperatures in the low to mid 80s for
much of the week. Winds will remain fairly light throughout the
week outside of any strong thunderstorms or showers that
traverse the area. Overnight lows will continue to meander in
the mid to upper 50s to low 60s throughout the week.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected at the terminals through the day
Saturday. A stray shower or storm can`t be ruled out near CHO
this afternoon, but otherwise no precipitation is expected
through Saturday. Winds will be out of the northwest today, and
may gust to around 15-20 knots. Winds will become northerly on
Friday, and then southerly on Saturday.

Brief sub-VFR instances will be possible for some of the terminals
Sunday and Monday afternoons and evenings. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will be most common with southwest winds remaining below 10-15 knots
for the afternoon and evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Northwesterly winds are expected over the waters today. SCAs
remain in effect through this afternoon. After a brief decrease
in winds this evening, SCA conditions return on the Bay and
lower Tidal Potomac later tonight into early Friday in northerly
flow. Sub-SCA conditions are expected tomorrow afternoon through
Saturday, with winds light out of the north Friday afternoon,
and then light out of the south on Saturday.

Sub-SCA winds are expected Sunday into Monday with a chance for a
few showers and isolated thunderstorms for the afternoon and evening
hours. Cannot completely rule out the need for a Special Marine
Warning for any strong storms that cross the waters during that
period.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ530>534-536-537-539>541-543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 11 AM EDT Friday for
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT this
     afternoon for ANZ535-538-542.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJP
NEAR TERM...KJP
SHORT TERM...KJP
LONG TERM...ADM
AVIATION...KJP/ADM
MARINE...KJP/ADM