Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
280
FNUS71 KLWX 170940
FWSLWX
Spot Forecast for Key Bridge Response...USCG
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
540 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 EDT on May 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
Please contact our office if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.
.DISCUSSION...
A broken to overcast stratus deck will remain over the incident location
this morning as low pressure continues to fill further offshore. Meanwhile,
weak high pressure will remain to the south keeping things dry through late afternoon.
Rain chances return from the south and west this evening and into the overnight
hours as a slow moving low pressure system and associated frontal boundary
push in from the Tennessee River Valley. The main low will pass well south
of the incident location late Saturday night into Sunday. This will result in a
tightened wind gradient and next period of Small Craft Advisory conditions.
Shower chances today arrive after 6pm with light to moderate rain and perhaps
a rumble of thunder expected overnight. More widespread showers
are expected Saturday into Saturday night as the upper level low pressure
system passes south of the region. Once again a thunderstorm is possible during
the afternoon and evening hours although probabilities remain less than 25
percent. Shower activity continues Sunday although a bit more dry time is
likely given slightly drier air racing south on north to northeast flow.
Light northeast winds this morning will shift to the southeast at 6 to 8 knots
with gusts up to 10 knots. Light southeasterly winds continue into tonight
and through the first half of Saturday. As the gradient, tightens over the
area expect Small Craft conditions to return to the incident location
late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.
MVFR ceilings will continue to bounce between 1500 to 3000 feet this morning with
slight improvement to around 5000 feet this afternoon. Flight conditions deteriorate
later this evening and into the overnight hours as low clouds and rain move into
the region. IFR conditions are possible during this time.
Water levels will rise again today into Saturday under southeasterly flow. Persistent
onshore flow will keep tide levels elevated Saturday into Sunday. Action thresholds will be
met at the incident location, but minor flooding is not expected at this time.
The current water temperature is around 66 degrees.
NW Branch Patapsco River at Baltimore MD
MLLW Categories - Minor 3.4 ft, Moderate 4.6 ft, Major 6.0 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.7 ft, Moderate 2.9 ft, Major 4.3 ft
Total Total Departure
Day/Time Tide Tide from Norm Waves Flood
ft MLLW ft MHHW ft ft Impact
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
17/03 AM 2.5 0.8 1.1 0.5 None
17/04 PM 2.6 0.9 1.3 0.5 None
18/03 AM 3.0 1.3 1.5 0.5 None
18/04 PM 2.7 1.0 1.4 0.5 None
19/04 AM 2.8 1.1 1.2 0.5 None
19/04 PM 2.4 0.7 1.2 0.5 None
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent shading).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........66 percent.
Surface winds (kts).Northeast winds up to 6 knots shifting to the
southeast around 8 knots late in the afternoon.
Wave height.........Less than 1 foot.
CEILING (KFT).......1.5 early in the morning, increasing to 2.5 late
in the morning then to 5.0 in the afternoon.
Visibility..........10.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........79 72 74 79 70 69 75 76 72 74 68 67
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Temp............62 63 64 64 65 67 68 68 69 69 70 70
RH..............87 87 81 78 75 73 70 73 68 68 66 68
SFC wnd dir.....N NE NE NE NE E E E E E E SE
SFC wnd spd kts.4 4 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8
SFC wnd gst.....7 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 7 8 9 9
Wave height (ft)0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ceiling (kft)...2.5 2.5 1.5 1.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
Visibility (sm).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent shading). Shower
chances increase early in the evening before turning to
a light to moderate rain late tonight into early Saturday
morning.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 60.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Surface winds (kts).Southeast winds 5 to 8 knots.
Wave height.........1 foot.
CEILING (KFT).......5.0 decreasing to 2.5 early in the morning.
Visibility..........10.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........62 63 65 66 77 79 80 86 84 88 91 93
Weather cov..... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 30 30 40 40 40 50 50 60 60 60
Temp............70 69 68 66 65 64 64 63 62 62 61 61
RH..............68 70 73 78 78 81 81 84 84 84 90 90
SFC wnd dir.....SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
SFC wnd spd kts.7 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 6
SFC wnd gst.....10 11 12 12 11 11 10 9 8 8 8 8
Wave height (ft)1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0
Ceiling (kft)...5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 2.5
Visibility (sm).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent shading). Chance of showers
early in the morning, then showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm likely in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 63.
Min humidity........87 percent.
Surface winds (kts).East winds 6 to 10 knots.
Wave height.........1 foot.
CEILING (KFT).......1.5.
Visibility..........6 early in the morning, then decreasing to 3
late in the morning increasing to 10 late in
the afternoon.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........96 95 95 95 94 92
Weather cov.....CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ 10
Chc of pcpn (%).50 60 60 70 60 60
Temp............60 60 60 60 61 61
RH..............90 93 93 93 90 90
SFC wind (kts)..SE 6 E 6 E 7 E 7 E 8 E 10
SFC wnd gst ....8 10 10 10 12 11
Wave height (ft)0 1 1 1 1 1
Ceiling (kft)...1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
Visibility (sm).10 6 6 10 10 6
$$
Forecaster...Taylor
Requested by...Jackie Gonzalez
Type of request...MARINE
.TAG 2413370.0/LWX
.DELDT 05/17/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nws-sterling-wxsupport@noaa.gov,Sitlkeybridgeresponse2024@gmail.com,jpg112122@gmail.com