065
FXUS64 KLZK 271144
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
644 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Clouds were on the increase across NErn AR this morning as
moisture wraps around a strong upper level closed-low situated to
the NE of the state. Elsewhere, skies were mostly clear and
temperatures were starting out in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Through
the AM, clouds and showers are expected to increase in coverage
and move into AR from the NE as some of the moisture from the
remnants of Helene begin to merge with the closed-low.

Temperatures will be held in check across a large part of the
state today thanks to overcast skies in conjunction with
increasing coverage of showers. Highs should range from the mid
60s over NE AR, to mid 70s over Cntrl AR, to lower 80s over Wrn
and Srn AR. A tightening PGF will lead to breezy conditions
developing today; NW winds of 10 to as much as 30 mph is expected
with gusts to 40 mph possible over far NE AR. Winds will be the
lightest over SW sections of the state.

Showers are expected to linger overnight across a good portion of
the state as more moisture from the remnants of Helene wraps into
the system. PoP chances will begin to decrease from SW to NE on
Saturday as the entire system starts to shift Ewrd. When all set
and done, QPF amounts should range from less than a tenth of an
inch over Wrn/SWrn/Srn AR, to around half an inch over Cntrl AR,
to around 1-2 inches over portions of E/NE AR. Even greater
rainfall amounts are anticipated over far Ern AR nearing the MS
River. Highs on Saturday should range from the mid 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

The extended period will begin with the remnants of Hurricane Helene
stuck in the Tennessee Valley. With the system nearby, isolated to
scattered showers remain in the forecast over far northeast Arkansas
on Sunday. Clouds/chances of rain will keep temperatures below
average in this part of the state.

Otherwise, ridging will take place from the central/southern Plains,
and a warming trend will commence through at least Tuesday.
Temperatures will warm to above seasonal levels in much of the
region. There will also be no rain.

As this is happening, large scale troughing will be occurring from
the northern Plains into the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes.
This will kick the remnants of Helene to the east. It will also
drive a cold front toward us from the northwest. For now, it looks
like a dry frontal passage on Tuesday, followed by slightly cooler
air.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

VFR conds should gradually become MVFR as lower CIGs and SHRA`s
build into the region from the NE. KADF and KHOT will be the two
sites with the most uncertainty regarding lowered CIGs. Winds
will be gusty today, ranging from 10-20 kts with gusts 30-35 kts,
especially over Nrn/Cntrl terminals. SHRA should begin to taper
off from SW to NE early Sat morning with CIGs improving.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     67  61  77  63 /  90  70  10   0
Camden AR         81  63  81  62 /  30  30   0   0
Harrison AR       71  61  75  60 /  60  30   0   0
Hot Springs AR    80  65  83  64 /  50  40   0   0
Little Rock   AR  75  64  81  66 /  70  60   0   0
Monticello AR     79  63  81  64 /  60  50   0   0
Mount Ida AR      81  62  83  61 /  40  40   0   0
Mountain Home AR  69  60  76  61 /  80  50  10   0
Newport AR        66  62  75  63 / 100  80  20   0
Pine Bluff AR     75  62  80  63 /  70  60  10   0
Russellville AR   77  64  83  63 /  60  50   0   0
Searcy AR         70  61  79  63 /  90  60  10   0
Stuttgart AR      71  62  78  63 /  90  70  10   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for ARZ008-017-025.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...70