Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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040 FXUS64 KLZK 251842 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 142 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 129 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 CURRENTLY: As of 1 PM CDT, visible satellite is showing some post-frontal high clouds across southeastern Arkansas which are moving away from the CWA and state. A trend of decreasing clouds and overall clearing skies should continue into the overnight hours on Wednesday and the early morning hours on Thursday. THURSDAY: In the upper lvls, a closed low which is cutoff from the overall H500 flow pattern also known as a cutoff low will be positioned over the vicinity to the northeast of the CWA over the bootheel of Missouri and far northwestern Tennessee. During the day on Thursday, although hundreds of miles apart, the interaction of this upper lvl cutoff low will actually be pulled slowly southward over eastern Arkansas and western Mississippi by the approaching and stronger upper lvl low associated with Hurricane Helene at H500. At the sfc, a trof will be present over the eastern part of the state and present the opportunity of increased POPs to begin overspreading into northeastern Arkansas later in the day. Expect weather conditions to remain overall fair throughout the majority of Thursday with an increase of POPs noted into northeastern Arkansas later into the day. Temperatures with respect to both low and high temperatures will be near normal compared to climatological normals for late September. THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY: Hurricane Helene is forecast to make landfall along the Florida Gulf Coast, specifically the Big Bend region of Florida Panhandle as a major hurricane on Thursday evening. In the upper lvls, the closed low associated with Helene and the cutoff low positioned over eastern Arkansas will begin to interact. For a brief moment in time, after Helene makes landfall and begins to slowly degrade losing strength after making landfall, the cutoff low and the upper lvl low associated with Helene will share the same pressure... at this moment, a interesting phenomena known in the meteorology world as the Fujiwhara Effect will begin as both upper lvl features will begin a dance of sorts around one another with their dueling CCW flows. However, this dance will be short-lived as Helene continues to become degraded and will become absorbed at H500 by the cutoff low over eastern Arkansas because the feature over eastern Arkansas will be stronger and absorb the upper lvl low associated with Helene. As a result, expect an influx of moisture and increasing POP chances across the CWA and state of Arkansas Thursday Night and continuing into the day on Friday, especially across north-central and northeastern parts of the state which are expected to experience higher total rainfall amounts. Temperatures on Friday in respect to high temperatures across most of the state will be on average 5 degrees below normal, but low temperatures will be near average for late September. POP chances should slowly become confined to the northeastern portion of the state over the weekend as the remnants of Helene continue to weaken and the overall system becomes transported eastward by an approaching cold front from the northwest. The greatest threat from the remnants of Helene will be the rainfall; as of this forecast package latest forecast amounts are in the vicinity of 2 to 3 inches of total rain across northeastern Arkansas and decent gradient downward as you track west back across the state. North-central, east-central, and central Arkansas is on track to see upwards of 1 to 2 inches of total rainfall. Elsewhere across the state, a tenth of an inch to near an inch of total rainfall will be possible. Unfortunately, at the moment, far western Arkansas and far southern Arkansas are on par to receive the least total rainfall from the remnants of Helene as a trace amount to around a quarter of an inch of rain is forecast. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 129 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 The merged storm system over the TN Valley will continue to produce rain across portions of northern and eastern AR through Sunday afternoon. Rainfall amounts will drop off pretty quickly over the weekend. After Friday night, between Saturday and Monday, additional rainfall will range from a trace across western portions of the state to around one-quarter inch across northeast AR. The storm system, and any of its impacts, will move well east of Arkansas by Tuesday, making way for an upper ridge and surface high pressure. High pressure will shift eastward from the central to eastern states through the end of the week. This air mass will bring cooler and drier air to the state by the middle of next week. High temperatures will generally be in the mid 70s to mid 80s, with lows in the 50s and 60s, through the weekend and early part of next week. Wednesday morning low temps will be in the upper 40s across northern AR and in the 50s elsewhere. High temperatures next Wednesday afternoon will top out in the lower 70s to lower 80s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Expect VFR flight category over the period from early Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday afternoon. No degradation of CIGS or VSBY is anticipated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 57 78 61 70 / 0 20 50 60 Camden AR 58 81 60 75 / 0 0 20 40 Harrison AR 54 76 57 71 / 0 0 20 40 Hot Springs AR 60 82 61 75 / 0 0 20 50 Little Rock AR 62 82 63 74 / 0 10 40 50 Monticello AR 60 83 62 74 / 0 0 20 50 Mount Ida AR 55 81 58 76 / 0 0 20 40 Mountain Home AR 55 78 59 71 / 0 10 30 50 Newport AR 58 78 62 70 / 0 20 50 70 Pine Bluff AR 59 80 61 72 / 0 10 30 60 Russellville AR 58 81 61 75 / 0 0 30 40 Searcy AR 58 80 61 72 / 0 10 50 60 Stuttgart AR 59 80 62 72 / 0 10 40 60 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...74 LONG TERM....71 AVIATION...74