Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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201 FXUS64 KMAF 220808 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 308 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday afternoon) Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Water vapor satellite imagery shows the cold front moving through the Texas Panhandle, and surface observing stations have recorded a northerly wind shift in Amarillo and sites along I-40. This cold front will continue surging southward through the morning hours before southwesterly winds ramp up with the passage of a upper level shortwave, and the front will stall as warmer air wins out. Because of this, there will be a very sharp gradient of temperatures across the region this afternoon, with those in the northern Permian Basin possibly in the 80s with areas further south sitting in the 90s and 100s, similar to previous days. Clearing skies and the strong warm surface winds will push those along the Rio Grande above 110, and even the mountains south of I-10 may get above 95 degrees, so a Heat Advisory is in effect for this afternoon for these areas. Outside of the heat, the combination of the stalled front and passage of the shortwave should be sufficient for some storm development this afternoon, primarily in the far eastern Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos. Moisture will be lacking today but decent instability and lapse rates indicate that anything that develops this afternoon may be accompanied by large hail and/or damaging winds. Regardless, storms will quickly move out of the area by sunset. Thursday will be more of the same with weak upper level ridging building back in and dry downslope flow pushing highs back to the upper 90s and low 100s. Humidity looks to fall to as low as 3 percent nearly area-wide on Thursday, combining with the stronger winds and very dry conditions to create critical fire weather conditions...more information can be found in the Fire Weather Discussion below. -Zuber && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Hot, dry conditions will continue into the holiday weekend before we see a break in the heat later next week. Deep westerly flow and sunny skies each afternoon will allow temperatures to remain well above normal through Sunday. Excessive heat will continue to be a concern across the Big Bend where daily temperatures reach 110-115 along the Rio Grande. Heat Advisories will likely continue for the foreseeable future. Very dry air and large scale subsidence overhead will not allow for any precipitation through Memorial Day. As we get into early next week, a strong shortwave will cross the Plains helping to shove a cold front through our region Monday. This will drop temperatures back to near normal with highs falling to the 80s north with 90s/100s south. Increasing low level moisture through the week could allow for better rain chances, but we shall see! && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 VFR. Winds mainly westerly/southwesterly, switching more northerly this afternoon before switching southerly/southwesterly this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Fire weather concerns will be on the increase into the weekend given a combination of escalating factors. Today begins a trend of very dry air that will shift northward across the area from Mexico. Areas along and west of the Pecos River will experience RH values below 5 percent this afternoon with this dry air spreading east Thursday into the weekend. Winds will remain generally under 15 mph for most locations except across the higher terrain which will be influenced by deeper mixing pushing winds to gust to near 40 mph at times. These stronger winds are likely to create critical fire weather conditions both Thursday and Saturday in the stronger, wind-favored areas. Fuels continue to degrade across the west and ERC values will reach extreme levels (>97th percentile) by Thursday afternoon. Have issued a Fire Weather Watch in the higher terrain where the strongest fire weather conditions and fuels overlap. A chance for storms exists this afternoon across the eastern Permian Basin, however, recent rains and green- up will help prevent major concerns for fire starts. Fortunately, lightning strikes will generally remain out of range of areas west of the Pecos that have been mostly dry for the past few months, keeping concern for lightning starts low. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 86 66 99 62 / 20 10 0 0 Carlsbad 90 60 95 63 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 103 73 105 69 / 0 10 0 0 Fort Stockton 99 64 100 65 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 85 60 85 60 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 86 58 93 59 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 92 53 91 52 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 90 65 97 63 / 10 0 0 0 Odessa 91 65 97 65 / 10 0 0 0 Wink 94 62 99 60 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor. Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin- Davis Mountains-Lower Brewster County. NM...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains. && $$ SHORT TERM...88 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...88