Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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031 FXUS64 KMAF 290538 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1238 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 923 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 The severe thunderstorm threat across the region has abated, with activity continuing to move east and south of the area. Lingering showers and a few storms are possible tonight, mainly across the northern Permian Basin and across portions of Terrell County, but gusty winds and lightning are the only concerns at this time. Additionally, the Heat Advisory that was in effect for the Davis Mountains south to the Big Bend has expired, and while another round of hot conditions is expected on Wednesday, temperatures look to be a bit borderline, thus will defer to the next forecast package for any decisions on heat products for Wednesday afternoon. Have updated PoP/Wx grids reflecting trends this evening, but otherwise, the forecast is on track. JP && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 An MCS to the northeast of the area moving southeast through north Texas has pushed an outflow boundary to the southwest this afternoon as apparent on visible satellite imagery , with storms possible this evening (especially across Pecos County or the southeastern Permian Basin), quickly growing upscale and moving east out of the area. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats with these storms, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out in the most intense and rapidly developing storms. Associated with increased moisture behind the outflow boundary, easterly winds advecting in higher boundary layer moisture, as well as lower clouds and stratus are forecast for the northeastern Permian Basin. These low clouds and increased high clouds farther southwest will inhibit radiational cooling tonight with lows above average and in the 60s, 70s along the Rio Grande and Pecos River in West Texas, and upper 50s in northernmost Lea County. Similarly, cloud cover will limit diurnal heating tomorrow, with temperatures much cooler and closer to if not slightly below average for most of the Permian Basin and Lea County, and a few degrees above average in the 90s to the southwest over most of Eddy County, the western Permian Basin, and southwest of the Pecos River. Highs 5 to 10 degrees above average with 100s along the Rio Grande and parts of the Stockton Plateau are also forecast. Highs will be lowest in northeasternmost parts of the area farthest behind the outflow boundary from today`s storms, and the outflow boundary is expected to progress as far west as the Southeast New Mexico/West Texas border before washing out and becoming less distinct. It will remain hot along/south of the Pecos River, especially south of Highway 90. Weak ridging overhead is likely to limit most shower/storm activity, but convective initiation as a result of heating of elevated terrain in the Davis Mountains and Pecos County is still possible. A 35+ kt LLJ providing 35-45kts of deep shear will help maintain updrafts and keep any storms that form persistent into tomorrow evening, before the boundary layer stabilizes with loss of daytime heating. Lows remain a few degrees above average for late May tomorrow night as widespread cloud cover persists, with 60s aside from 70s near the Rio Grande, over the eastern Stockton Plateau, and southeastern Permian Basin. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 After a "down" day Wednesday, convective chances pick up once again Thursday. Weak disturbances within zonal flow aloft along with a possible outflow boundary from overnight storms to our north will help support another round of storms by Thursday afternoon. Best coverage will be across the northern and eastern Permian Basin where instability is greatest and the best shear exists. Temperatures will climb back above normal with highs mostly in the 90s with 100s in the lower river valleys. Storm chances continue Friday into the weekend as we keep easterly flow and moisture at the surface and weak shortwaves pass aloft. The best chance for widespread storms looks to be Saturday afternoon as a stronger wave arrives. Ridging builds in early next week and the heat will be on! Widespread 100s will be on the table beginning Monday into at least Wednesday with more heat products likely. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Easterly winds are gradually waning from the outflow from yesterday afternoon. Another outflow is set to push in from the north overnight, bringing a northeasterly wind shift before winds slowly return to the general southeasterly direction. The current outflow pushing in from the north will bring MVFR CIGs to CNM and HOB and likely to MAF/INK as well. These clouds look to scatter out by 18z this afternoon, giving way to VFR for the remainder of the period. A stray storm or two is possible in the vicinity of FST in the afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Elevated fire weather conditions are expected through next week, mainly over the higher terrain west of the Pecos on the west side of a developing dryline each day. Critical minimum relative humidities will coincide with increased 20-ft winds each afternoon. ERCs remain above the 95th percentile in these areas. However, fuel density and limited opportunities for fire starts remain low. The one exception will be Saturday afternoon, when the dryline will be far enough west that lightning starts will be possible in the Sacramento Foothills, Guadalupes, and areas directly south to the Presidio Valley. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 89 68 95 66 / 20 10 20 30 Carlsbad 95 64 99 64 / 10 0 0 0 Dryden 98 73 98 71 / 20 10 10 10 Fort Stockton 100 69 101 68 / 20 10 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 90 63 90 63 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 88 64 96 62 / 20 10 10 10 Marfa 95 55 94 54 / 10 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 92 69 97 67 / 20 10 10 10 Odessa 93 70 98 68 / 20 10 10 10 Wink 98 69 102 67 / 10 10 0 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...84 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...16