Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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576 FXUS64 KMAF 310538 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX Issued by National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1238 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms, some severe with all hazards in play, are forecast this afternoon and evening for the northern Permian Basin and the lower Trans Pecos - Another round of thunderstorms Friday night? Going to be a busy afternoon, so will keep this somewhat brief. Latest mesoanalysis and satellite data suggest that the outflow boundary is along a line from south of Tatum NM east-southeastward through just northeast of Midland to almost Garden City, TX. Meanwhile, a dryline extends across southeastern NM from Artesia south through Carlsbad, then from there south southeastward to near Pecos and Fort Stockton. Hodographs support splitting storms this afternoon where convection can realize substantial MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg, steep mid-tropospheric lapse rates, and effective shear in the 40-50 knot range. Right-moving daughter cells, especially if they can latch onto the baroclinic vorticity within the outflow boundary, will have the potential to produce a couple of tornadoes just inside the cool side of the boundary where LCLs and subcloud RHs are higher than on the warm side of the boundary. Large to giant (> 3" diameter) hail, wind gusts over 70 mph, and very heavy rainfall are likely to occur. With the left-moving daughter cells, all threats are in play except for tornadoes. Looking at two areas for CI this afternoon...Pecos County and also along the outflow boundary across the northern/northwestern Permian Basin. WoFS paintballs suggestive of upscale growth into two MCSs, one with messy cell mergers over the northeastern Basin and the second over Terrell County. Flash flooding will then be a concern over these areas. Some CAMs are hinting at redevelopment over the northeastern Basin after midnight as well...bears watching. Friday looks to be a down day as cool outflow from the expected MCSs overspreads the area. Should be a nice day. Friday night likewise should be quiet, with possibly some showers and thunderstorms across the northeastern Basin Friday night. NBM looked good for the short- term and was used with no modification other than to add T+ in the grids for this afternoon/evening where there was PoPs. -bc && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Behind a cold front reinforced by mesoscale outflow boundaries, easterly upslope surface flow will advect in higher levels of moisture for all of the area on Saturday. PWATs are forecast to reach levels that are above annual climatological maximum, with parts of West Texas being included by WPC in risk for excessive rainfall. In addition to increased moisture behind Friday`s cold front and the dryline setting up farther to the west, an upper short wave trough will provide lift for storms. The most widespread rain chances are forecast Saturday, when a chance of thunderstorms will be present for much of the area. SPC has outlined parts of West Texas in a SLGT risk Saturday and MRGL Sunday. The combination of deep layer shear of 40-60kts over the southern 2/3rds of the area, anomalously high boundary layer moisture, and steep lapse rates of 7-9 C/km will be conducive to a risk of hail and damaging winds in any storms that develop and become severe on Saturday. While an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out in the most intense and rapidly developing storms, the higher tornado risk looks to be present farther north over the TX PH. Despite storm chances over westernmost regions, QPF remains low over higher terrain. More on this in the Fire Weather Discussion. Sunday`s storm coverage will be less than Saturday as the trough moves east of the area, with most forcing for convection a result of the dryline. Westerly downsloping winds over higher terrain sharpens the dryline during the afternoon, but only isolated convection is forecast, mainly in southern parts of the area over the mountains. Hail and damaging winds are possible in the strongest storms. Increasing thicknesses following the departing trough on Sunday will also result in warmer temperatures than Saturday. After Sunday, a summer-like Death Ridge pattern, with ridging building from the eastern Pacific into the U.S. Intermountain West and Rockies, will mark a warming trend that continues into Wednesday. Cluster analysis consistently shows a quasi-stationary upper ridge setting up over Mexico by Monday, and LREF model as well as forecast dew point grids indicate the dryline retreating west to El Paso after Sunday. While still too early to tell, this might mark the unofficial start of our monsoon season. With the dryline this far west, rain is not likely anywhere in the area. Some rain chances are indicated at the end of the long term for western parts of the area, but this far out we will need to see a more consistent signature in models before we conclude rain is possible next week. Highs Saturday will be the coolest out of all days in the long term, near to below average northeast of the Pecos River with upper 80s over higher elevations and northeastern Permian Basin, and a few degrees above average in the 90s and above elsewhere, triple digits near the Rio Grande. Lows Saturday night remain warmer than average and in the 60s, 70s near the Rio Grande and over the southeastern Permian Basin. Highs Sunday feature 90s and above, with triple digits making an appearance not only in the Big Bend but also in the Reeves County Plains up along the Pecos River into SE NM. Lows will Sunday night will be similar but warmer than Saturday night, as surface flow becomes more southerly and warmer air from the south is transported into the area. Monday through Wednesday, highs 10 to 15 degrees warmer than average for early June are expected, with highs mostly in the triple digits and above, aside from higher elevations, northern Lea County, and the northern Permian Basin where highs will stay in the 90s. Lows likewise will continue to be warmer than average, 70s present over much of the southern and eastern Permian Basin, leeward plains of the Guadalupe into Davis Mountains, and near the Rio Grande, 60s elsewhere. Highs Tuesday are likely to be the warmest in the long term, close to 15 degrees above average for early June. After surface flow again becomes more easterly later on Wednesday in response to an approaching short wave, highs Thursday will be slighter "cooler" but remain above average, similar to readings seen on Sunday. Lows Thursday night will continue the trend of above average temperatures, with warmest lows in the 70s along the Pecos River and near the Rio Grande, and coolest lows in the highest elevations of West Texas and the Guadalupes. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Generally VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. KMAF currently at MVFR with BKN024 with the passing of a reminant outflow boundary moving NE to SW, CIGs should lift between 06-07Z. Elsewhere, quiet weather remains with VFR conditions. Winds currently out of the SE at all terminals at 7-12 knots. KMAF more easterly behind the reminant outflow boundary aformentioned above at 10-15 knots with gusts of 25 knots. Developing TS over the Texas Panhandle will develop into an MCS and dive S/SE during the overnight hours, with possible impacts at KMAF by 13Z. Confidence is low on how far west the line of TS will extend, so mention of VCTS at 13Z for now. With this boundary associated with the developing MCS, the winds will shift E/NE by ~11Z for KHOB, ~13Z for KMAF/KINK, 14Z for KPEQ/KCNM, and ~15Z for KFST. Winds will be out of the E/NE at 10-15 knots with gusts up to 25-30 knots. BKN to OVC at 6000-10000 expected. Skies will clear from the NW to SE during the mid and late morning timeframe with light winds (7-12 knots) out of E/SE. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Elevated fire weather conditions are forecast over westernmost regions each day, mainly west of the dryline for higher terrain west of the Pecos, especially Eddy County Plains and the Guadalupes. Min RH below critical 15% level will coincide with increased 20ft winds each afternoon west of the dryline, with ERCS remaining above the 90th percentile. In any storms Saturday afternoon, fire starts from lightning will be possible as far west as the Sacramento Foothills due to critically dry fuels and lack of wetting rains in any storms. However, below average fuel density will constrain fire risk. Highest risk of fire weather conditions is indicated for Sunday through Wednesday, with critical fire weather conditions possible Sunday and Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 67 90 67 93 / 10 20 30 20 Carlsbad 66 96 66 101 / 10 30 20 10 Dryden 72 95 72 98 / 0 20 20 10 Fort Stockton 70 96 69 100 / 0 40 20 20 Guadalupe Pass 64 89 65 92 / 0 20 10 10 Hobbs 63 92 64 95 / 10 30 20 10 Marfa 57 94 59 97 / 0 30 10 10 Midland Intl Airport 67 92 68 94 / 10 20 30 20 Odessa 69 92 69 95 / 10 20 20 20 Wink 70 96 69 102 / 0 30 20 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...99