432
FXUS64 KMAF 241525
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1025 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1021 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

A weak cold front enhanced by a modified outflow boundary is
gradually working its way southward across the Permian Basin this
morning, with a northerly wind shift in its wake. To the north,
temperatures across the South Plains remain in the 60s and lower
70s, thus despite ample insolation this afternoon, expect this
boundary to result in cooler temperatures, especially across the
northern tier of the forecast area. Thus, have adjusted highs down
accordingly today, with highs topping out in the upper 80s across
far northern areas and in the mountains, lower to middle 90s for
most other locations, and the only 100s confined along portions of
the Rio Grande Valley. While still above normal, these
temperatures will offer somewhat of a reprieve from the heat,
which looks to crank up over the holiday weekend. The remainder of
the forecast this morning is on track.

JP

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

WV imagery shows zonal flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico this morning.  KMAF 00Z raob and VWP show southwest to west
flow throughout the column, keeping moisture to the east.

Today, return flow may briefly push a dryline bulge into the lower
Trans Pecos this morning, but this will quickly mix east as a cold
front tries to backdoor the area.  The front isn`t very strong, but
will shave a degree or two off of yesterday`s highs, precluding the
need for any heat products today.  Highs this afternoon should
average only 5-7F above normal.  Despite this cooling, low single-
digit relative humidity is anticipated across most of the area.

Tonight, surface winds go light and variable, and under mostly clear
skies, efficient radiational cooling will allow overnight lows to
cool to only ~ 2-4F above normal.  To the west, and upper trough is
forecast to be digging through the southwest CONUS.

Saturday, zonal flow aloft goes to southwest as the trough moves
into the region.  This will develop a mountain wave signature over
the Guadalupes for a few hours of high winds there, and possibly
advisory winds on the plains in the lee of the mountains.  The new
NBM 4.2 winds are not very representative of this. In fact, the
NBM90 alone doesn`t generate high winds in the Guadalupes at all
Saturday.  We speculate that, just as an erroneous dewpoint reading
can "infect" the NBM, lack of a wind sensor at KGDP is similarly
"infecting" the NBM there, and resulting in lower wind forecasts.
That said, we`ll increase winds Saturday afternoon/evening, and
issue a High Wind Watch to cover this.  These increased winds will
add a downslope warming component to the mix, increasing afternoon
highs to 8-10F above normal.  Heat Advisories will once again be
needed south.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Come 12z Sunday, we`ll still have the lingering jet associated with
Saturday`s shortwave gradually departing. This contributes to
another hot, dry, and breezy day with the dryline shoved all the way
into San Angelo`s area. On the heels of this weekend`s shortwave, a
back-door front will likely nose into the Permian Basin with some
elevated northerly winds, however, plenty of sunshine takes a toll
on any temperature gradient and the hot weather stays through Monday
afternoon.

A bit of a pattern change comes after Monday as lighter westerlies
allows return flow to take hold, shoving the dryline back to the
TX/NM state line by Tuesday morning. This could set the stage for
the next round of thunderstorms for both Tuesday and Wednesday
afternoons. The instability will be there east of the dryline but
wind shear is going to be somewhat limited with the light flow
aloft. For you rain seekers, stay tuned over the next few days as
more details become available. That being said, the increased rain
chances and cloud cover should provide *some* relief from the above-
normal heat during the middle part of the week.

-Munyan

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 539 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Light westerly winds
will prevail today, with a weak cold front moving into the area
around sundown, shifting surface flow to light E-SE after
sundown. Forecast convective temps are too high for cu development.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

A fairly active period of fire weather is anticipated this weekend
with extremely dry conditions persisting each afternoon with a
shortwave pushing through on Saturday. For today, extremely low
humidities develop by the afternoon (as low as 2 percent in spots),
but wind speeds will only be sustained near 15-20 mph and fire
weather conditions should stay elevated to near-critical at best.
Moisture recovery only makes it to the east-central Permian Basin by
sunrise today, with very dry conditions persisting out west. Despite
the lack of winds, the humidity and very dry fuels could lead to
generally IA fire potential.

With the incoming shortwave for Saturday, winds will be much
stronger. Following another morning of poor recovery along/west of
the Pecos, humidities once again fall to 5 percent or less with
westerly winds sustained 20-30 mph (and stronger winds in the
mountains). This combination sends RFTIs into the 7-8 range, which
when paired with the extremely dry fuels (ERCs easily above the 97th
percentile west of the Pecos), suggest critical to extreme fire
weather conditions for Saturday afternoon. As such, a Fire Weather
Watch has been issued for Southeast New Mexico and portions of West
Texas.

The tail-end of the jet associated with Saturday`s shortwave lingers
through the area into Sunday afternoon, keeping elevated winds in
place, mainly across the western high terrain. While another morning
of poor moisture recovery and afternoon humidity near 5 percent,
winds may be light enough to sneak below critical conditions but
this forecast will be largely dictated by how strong of winds linger
into Sunday.

Beyond Sunday, better moisture return sends the dryline westward of
the TX/NM state line each morning along with lighter winds and less
dry afternoons should keep fire weather concerns on the low side
through much of the work-week.

-Munyan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               92  61 101  66 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 93  62  96  64 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                  100  69 106  72 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            97  63 104  68 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           84  62  86  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    89  57  95  62 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    89  53  95  57 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     93  61 100  67 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   93  62 100  68 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     96  60 101  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening for Andrews-Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-Davis
     Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson County-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County Plains-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains.

NM...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento
     Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...44