993
ACUS11 KWNS 230707
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230707
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-230900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0906
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Areas affected...south-central and southeastern Oklahoma...and into
western Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 230707Z - 230900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong/locally severe storms will likely persist
over the next few hours.  Hail in the 1" to 1.75" range, and
possibly a strong/damaging gust or two, will be possible with the
strongest storms.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a gradually expanding cluster
of storms over south-central Oklahoma.  The storms are not
well-depicted by any recent CAM runs, but are occurring in tandem
with a weak cyclonic mid-level circulation evident in water vapor
imagery, and near the nose of an associated 40 kt southerly
low-level jet.  The resulting QG forcing, co-located with an axis of
1500 to 2000 J/kg slightly elevated CAPE, should allow continuance
of the ongoing storms, and possibly a minor increase in storm
coverage.

Latest area VWP data shows weakly veering flow through the
cloud-bearing layer (roughly 850mb to 150 mb), that increases with
height -- particularly at mid to upper levels.  The resulting
effective-layer (LCL to mid-cloud depth) supports potential for
organized/rotating storms.  With storms slightly elevated atop a
modestly stable layer, primary risk should remain large hail, though
a stronger gust or two cannot be ruled out.  Overall, with risk
expected to remain isolated to a couple of the strongest storms,
current expectations are that wW issuance should remain unnecessary.

..Goss/Edwards.. 05/23/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   34389803 34829789 35359650 35959465 35749371 35019372
            34669365 34169318 33539344 33759562 34389803