393
ACUS11 KWNS 270205
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270205
NCZ000-270330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1000
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0905 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Areas affected...Parts of central NC

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 321...

Valid 270205Z - 270330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 321
continues.

SUMMARY...The damaging-wind threat will continue in the short term,
before an anticipated weakening trend late tonight.

DISCUSSION...Some intensification of ongoing convection has recently
been noted across central NC, with an east-southeastward moving
storm cluster now overtaking a strong discrete cell that had
developed ahead of the line. Some damaging-wind threat may persist
in the short term ahead of this cluster, as it moves into a region
where rather strong heating/mixing occurred earlier today.

Only modest deep-layer shear and weak low-level flow were noted on
the 00Z GSO sounding, though some increase in low-level flow has
recently been noted on the KRAX VWP, and stronger midlevel flow to
the southwest may begin impinging upon the ongoing storm cluster.
Gradually increasing downstream MLCINH should eventually result in a
weakening trend later tonight, such as what has already occurred
across southern VA. However, at least an isolated damaging-wind
threat may persist to the eastern edge of WW 321.

..Dean.. 05/27/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP...

LAT...LON   35668033 36167947 36307905 36267833 35967798 35577804
            35187857 35117905 35187967 35297999 35428022 35668033