648
ACUS11 KWNS 260242
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260241
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-260445-

Mesoscale Discussion 0962
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0941 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Areas affected...Northeast Kansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 309...311...

Valid 260241Z - 260445Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 309, 311 continues.

SUMMARY...Upscale growth into an MCS appears to be ongoing across
northeast Kansas. Consequently, the wind threat should gradually
increase in the coming hours downstream.

DISCUSSION...Gradual upscale growth appears to be occurring across
northeast KS with KGID and KTWX reflectivity and velocity data
suggesting that cold pool consolidation is underway. A more notable
wind surge is noted in on the northern periphery of the line across
Washington county, which may be the development of an MCV-like
feature that will act to better organize the developing MCS (though
embedded supercells will remain possible on the southwestern flank
of the line). VWP observations from KTWX show southerly winds in the
lowest kilometer increasing to 50 knots over the past hour, which
will will enhance convergence on the southern flank of the cold
pool. Additionally, a moisture/buoyancy axis is noted in recent
objective analyses across eastern KS into western/central MO. Based
on these observations, the expectation is for the MCS to begin
propagating to the east/southeast over the coming hours with an
attendant increase in severe wind potential. Given the strong
low-level SRH (0-1 km SRH near 500 m2/s2 per KTWX VWP), embedded
circulations appear possible.

..Moore.. 05/26/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   39599856 39789837 40219664 40249582 40159504 39739425
            39329388 39029389 38609417 38369442 38259490 38269549
            38389600 38579655 39199823 39399851 39599856