218
ACUS11 KWNS 270335
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270335
MOZ000-KSZ000-270500-

Mesoscale Discussion 1005
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1035 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Areas affected...Extreme northeast KS into northern MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 270335Z - 270500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated hail threat may persist into the early
overnight hours.

DISCUSSION...Isolated strong to occasionally severe storms have
persisted this evening across northern MO late this evening, with
the strongest cell having produced 2-inch diameter hail in Mercer
and Sullivan Counties. Additional storms have developed into
northwest MO, and also southwest of the Kansas City metro. While
this region is post-frontal, lingering low-level moisture beneath
steep lapse rates aloft is supporting MUCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg.
Meanwhile, modest but sufficient deep-layer flow/shear is supporting
some storm organization, including occasional supercell structures.

Ongoing convection is likely being aided by a shortwave trough
moving through broader cyclonic flow aloft, and additional
development of a severe storm or two will be possible into the early
overnight hours, with large hail as the primary hazard (though
locally strong gusts cannot be ruled out). Eventual weakening is
expected overnight due to weakening instability and departure of
stronger large-scale ascent.

..Dean/Smith.. 05/27/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39179523 40509443 40429277 39859217 39069224 38739279
            38309426 38399524 39179523