Extended Streamflow Prediction
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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FGUS63 KKRF 201854
ESPMDC
LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
1136 PM CDT MON AUG 19 2024
********************************************************
********* THESE NUMBERS ARE PRODUCED WITH HEFS *********
********************************************************
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT ESP (CS), HEFS, AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR
NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD
STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
HEFS VALUES INDICATE THE HEFS PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE ESP PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS OR HEFS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS OR
HEFS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS
LOWER THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 08/24/2024 - 11/22/2024
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR | HEFS CS HS |HEFS CS HS |HEFS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:MARAIS DES CYGNES R AT READING KS 3N
RDNK1 19.0 21.0 45.0 | 41 29 30 | 38 23 23 | <5 <5 <5
:MARAIS DES CYGNES R AT QUENEMO KS 2S
QNMK1 17.0 24.5 40.5 | 44 38 41 | 21 24 23 | <5 <5 <5
:SALT CR AT LYNDON KS 3ENE
LNDK1 10.0 16.0 24.0 | 23 16 21 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:MARAIS DES CYGNES R AT OTTAWA KS
OTWK1 30.0 33.0 45.0 | 28 32 40 | 13 9 6 | <5 <5 <5
:POTTAWATOMIE CR AT GARNETT KS 4N
GRTK1 26.0 32.0 34.0 | 29 27 29 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:POTTAWATOMIE CR AT LANE KS NO.2
LNEK1 23.0 24.0 28.5 | 23 20 25 | 21 17 20 | <5 <5 <5
:MARAIS DES CYGNES R AT OSAWATOMIE KS
OSMK1 28.0 45.0 48.0 | 37 43 46 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:MARAIS DES CYGNES R AT LA-CYGNE KS 1W
LCGK1 25.0 30.0 36.0 | 36 46 51 | 18 26 37 | <5 <5 <5
:MARAIS DES CYGNES R AT TRADING POST KS
TPOK1 27.0 29.0 40.0 | 21 34 42 | 19 29 39 | <5 <5 6
LEGEND
HEFS = HYDROLOGIC ENSEMBLE FORECAST SERVICE SIMULATION (CURRENT)
CS = CONDITIONAL ESP SIMULATION (CURRENT)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--HEFS EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 0824 Z DH12 /DC2408200436/DVD90/HGVFPXT/HGVFPX9/HGVFPXH
.B1 /HGVFPX5/HGVFPXG/HGVFPX1/HGVFPXF
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 08/24/2024 - 11/22/2024
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:MARAIS DES CYGNES R
RDNK1 2.3/ 2.4/ 3.9/ 23.4/ 22.9/ 24.5/ 25.2/
QNMK1 1.6/ 4.0/ 5.5/ 26.4/ 22.7/ 29.8/ 31.6/
:SALT CR
LNDK1 0.6/ 0.7/ 1.5/ 10.1/ 9.7/ 13.3/ 14.5/
:MARAIS DES CYGNES R
OTWK1 5.6/ 8.4/ 12.2/ 30.9/ 30.3/ 33.2/ 34.5/
:POTTAWATOMIE CR
GRTK1 5.9/ 6.2/ 13.2/ 26.7/ 26.2/ 30.6/ 31.7/
LNEK1 6.4/ 7.0/ 8.5/ 24.3/ 21.9/ 26.6/ 27.8/
:MARAIS DES CYGNES R
OSMK1 15.2/ 17.4/ 20.6/ 31.7/ 30.6/ 33.8/ 38.4/
LCGK1 6.9/ 8.7/ 12.1/ 28.7/ 28.3/ 32.6/ 34.0/
TPOK1 6.7/ 8.7/ 12.2/ 27.9/ 23.9/ 32.1/ 38.1/
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--HEFS NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 0824 Z DH12 /DC2408200436/DVD90/HGVFPNT/HGVFPN9/HGVFPNH
.B1 /HGVFPN5/HGVFPNG/HGVFPN1/HGVFPNF
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 08/24/2024 - 11/22/2024
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:MARAIS DES CYGNES R
RDNK1 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/
QNMK1 0.8/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.3/
:SALT CR
LNDK1 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/
:MARAIS DES CYGNES R
OTWK1 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/
:POTTAWATOMIE CR
GRTK1 3.6/ 3.3/ 2.9/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/
LNEK1 5.6/ 5.5/ 5.5/ 5.4/ 5.4/ 5.4/ 5.4/
:MARAIS DES CYGNES R
OSMK1 12.7/ 12.7/ 12.7/ 12.5/ 12.5/ 12.5/ 12.5/
LCGK1 4.3/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/
TPOK1 3.6/ 3.5/ 3.4/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.0/ 3.0/
.END
$$