Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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001 FXUS64 KMEG 300824 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 324 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Dry and cooler conditions are expected today with temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Unsettled weather conditions will return to the Mid-South tomorrow afternoon with a chance of a strong to severe thunderstorms through at least Saturday. A period of unsettled weather looks to remain in the forecast through the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 In the mid to upper levels, the Mid-South remains in a northwesterly flow pattern with a large scale troughing occurring over the eastern US and ridging taking place over the central US. This pattern looks to persist until later today when the mid- level ridging begins to shift eastward. Thereafter, the flow pattern becomes quasi-zonal with a shortwave trough that ejects out of the Plains and toward the Mid-South. Ahead of this feature, at least weak cyclogenesis appears likely to occur, which results increasing shower and thunderstorm chances across the region between tomorrow and Saturday. It is also possible that isolated severe thunderstorm activity could occur tomorrow and Saturday, as the Storm Prediction Center has included portions of the Mid- South in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. For now the main threats with this activity appear to be damaging winds, and perhaps isolated instances of large hail in more organized cells. Unsettled weather looks to hang around in the extended period through at least the middle of next week, as multiple disturbances appear to move through a mostly quasi-zonal flow regime. For now, there does not appear to be a consensus with respect to severe potential from global ensembles and deterministic models and machine learning guidance in the extended period, but this will be monitored closely and updates will be provided as things evolve. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 The main focus for the next 30 hours will be the possibility of showers to develop and impact MEM towards the end of the period. Given low confidence in showers reaching the terminal, opted to leave mention of precip out of TAF. Otherwise, VFR CIGs and winds veering east will prevail. ANS && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JPR AVIATION...ANS