414
FXUS62 KMFL 040015 AAB
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
815 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 809 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Most of the showers and thunderstorms that have been occurring
over the interior and west coast metro areas have dissipate this
evening. The only area that can still see a few showers or
thunderstorms will be over the Naples area for the next couple of
hours before moving into the Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure will remain over the Western Atlantic waters
tonight keeping the light easterly wind flow over the region. This
will keep most of South Florida dry tonight, except for the east
coast metro areas where couple of showers could move onshore from
the Atlantic waters late tonight. Therefore, the current forecast
looks good and no changes are planned at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 123 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

South Florida will remain in the periphery of a surface high located
off the Carolina coastline today, allowing for continued easterly
flow and moisture advection across our region. This, along with a
subtle upper-level shortwave situated over the peninsula will lead
to increased chances for rainfall across much of the region.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have already moved across
the local Atlantic waters and the East Coast metro; activity will
continue through the evening, with coverage shifting westward
towards interior and southwest FL as winds speeds pick up. The
primary risk with the convective development today will be the risk
of localized flooding due to heavy rainfall. Secondary risks with
the shower and storm activity today also include the chance for
gusty winds and frequent lightning.

The forecast will be fairly similar heading into Tuesday, with the
exception of the surface high`s influence, which will drift eastward
and will allow for lighter easterly winds to be realized across the
area. Nevertheless, chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms
will remain elevated given the enhanced moisture profile and
continue presence of upper-level support. At this time we capped
PoPs at 60% for Monday afternoon, with PotThunder capped at 50%.

Temperatures during the short term period will follow a typical
easterly regime, ranging from the mid-80s near the immediate east
coast to the low to mid-90s over the interior and southwest Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 247 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Generally weak mid-level troughing will persist over the eastern
CONUS through the end of the upcoming workweek, before perhaps
mid-lvl ridges noses eastward towards SFL this coming weekend. At
the surface weak high pressure over the western Atlantic will
support one more day of light E-SE synoptic flow on Wednesday,
before winds veering more southerly-southwesterly in the late week
period as surface low pressure moves into the eastern US. The
system`s weakening frontal boundary will shift southwards towards
this area this coming weekend bringing at best a wind shift to our
region, with any appreciable negative Theta_E advection
(unfortunately) looking to remain to onto this area ur north at
this time.

In terms of sensible weather, Wednesday will likely feature a
continuation of the general convective pattern observed in the
early-week period characterized by the convective focus gradually
shifting from the east coast/Atlantic waters early in the day to
the Interior/west coast in the afternoon, along with the warmest
high temperatures over Interior portions of the area. The veering
of the low-lvl flow will shift the convective focus more towards
the Interior and east coast in the late-week period, with Thursday
potentially being the wettest day of the stretch for the east
coast as a subtle shortwave pivots down from the northwest.

Rain chances over the weekend will be dependent upon both the
front`s southward progress and also the eastward extent of the
building ridging over the GOM, but for now generally broadbrushed
Chc (35-45%) PoPs seems reasonable. Temperatures will be on the
rise in the late-week/weekend period over the east coast as the
flow veers more west-southwest, with highs likely reaching the
mid to upper 90s. Peak heat indices will also likely be
approaching or exceeding 105 degrees by Fri/Sat, and consequently
heat advisories can`t be ruled out, particularly if rain chances
are reduced due to a weakened front and/or stronger mid-lvl height
rises ahead of the ridge.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 714 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

The east coast TAF sites will remain dry tonight while KAPF taf
site will see some thunderstorms in the area until around 02Z
tonight before going dry. Ceiling and vis will remain in VFR
conditons at all TAF sites, except for KAPF where it could fall
down into MVFR or even IFR with a shower/storm passage over the
area. Winds will decrease to 5 knots or less tonight mainly from
the east.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 123 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Boating conditions will continue to improve today and into the
workweek as easterly winds gradually diminish in strength. Seas will
remain in the 2-3 ft range through the first half of the week.
Nevertheless, scattered showers and storms each afternoon could
result in localized higher seas and winds.

&&&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  89  78  90 /  10  40  30  60
West Kendall     75  91  75  92 /  20  40  30  60
Opa-Locka        78  91  77  91 /  10  40  30  60
Homestead        76  89  77  90 /  20  40  40  50
Fort Lauderdale  79  87  78  89 /  10  40  40  60
N Ft Lauderdale  78  88  78  89 /  10  40  30  60
Pembroke Pines   78  92  78  93 /  10  40  30  60
West Palm Beach  76  89  76  90 /  20  40  30  50
Boca Raton       78  89  77  91 /  20  40  40  50
Naples           74  94  76  93 /  50  40  50  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....Carr
AVIATION...BNB