295
FXUS62 KMFL 270829
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
429 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 321 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

The mid-lvl ridge will remain in place over SFL this Memorial Day,
maintaining hot and largely dry conditions over the area. Can`t rule out
isolated to scattered (at best) showers and thunderstorms over the
Interior and east coast late this afternoon (with the east coast sea
breeze being the main focus for convection) but given the dry mid-lvls
and dynamic subsidence do not expect that storm intensity and coverage
will be particularly notable. The main story will be today`s high
temperatures which will likely approach daily records, reaching the mid
to even upper 90s (with any low 90s likely confined to the immediate coast).
Although peak heat indices will likely reach triple digits, the
airmass should be dry enough to keep peak head indices below heat
headline criteria.

The ridge will break down on Tuesday as troughing shifts into the eastern
CONUS while a cold front will move into northern Florida (and then
largely stall for the mid-week period). Given increasing synoptic ascent
of the trough, and the seasonably hot and unstable airmass south of the
front, increased convective activity relative to Monday is expected with
scattered to even perhaps numerous showers and thunderstorms. The synoptic
flow will remain westerly so the mesoscale convective focus should once
again be the east coast sea breeze which will favor the eastern half of
the Peninsula for storms. Given that highs will once again reach the mid
90s, steep low-lvl lapse rates and abundant DCAPE is expected leading to
the potential for strong wet microbursts, however, with the flow aloft
remaining modest don`t see a widespread (organized) severe threat
materializing at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 321 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

n contrast to the ridging dominated pattern that has largely prevailed
over our area the last few weeks, the longwave pattern through the
extended period will be characterized by longwave troughing over the
eastern CONUS with several convectively-enhanced shortwaves also likely
moving into the region. At the surface, the aforementioned cold front will
likely remain stalled near or just north of the area through most of the
workweek with a continued warm and largely sea-breeze driven wind regime
prevailing (albeit trending more easterly by the late week period). This
setup will result in generally scattered showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon, although the exact evolution will remain somewhat uncertain as
synoptic forcing remains weak making mesoscale interactions (i.e.
sea breezes and outflow boundaries) more prominent. Temperatures should
remain above normal, with highs in the 90s (highest temperatures Interior)
through the workweek.

Heading into next weekend high pressure north of the area will build,
resulting in increasing synoptic easterly flow, and potentially even
bringing the (weak) cold front through the area. Given that we will be
entering June confidence is not super high in the front making it into
the Stratis, but if anything the enhanced easterly flow should at least
knock down high temps a few degrees over the east coast regardless of
whether or not the front makes it through. Additionally, if the stronger
easterly regime materializes instability would be knocked down and we
would see a temporary shift from a wet season diurnal deep convection
regime to one in which rain would be more of the coastal convergence
showers variety.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 321 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals during the next 24 hours.
An isolated shower or thunderstorm can`t be ruled out this afternoon, but
chances are very low attm. SE to SSE winds return after 15Z,
except westerly winds at KAPF with sea breezes.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Moderate S-SE flow will continue on Monday and persist through the
middle of the week over the Atlantic waters. The Gulf waters will
likely see more westerly flow through the period, particularly the
near-shore waters in the afternoon given the onshore progression of
the Gulf breeze each afternoon. Conditions may approach small craft
exercise criteria today with wind speeds around 15kts and possibly
higher gusts but seas should remain low through the period. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms will be possible today with increasing storm
chances Tuesday through the middle of the week.

&&


.CLIMATE...
Issued at 110 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Forecast highs are expected to reach the mid 90s each afternoon
this holiday weekend. The records are as follows:

      5/27
MIA: 96-1902
FLL: 94-1924
PBI: 96-1928

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            92  80  93  79 /  30  30  50  50
West Kendall     94  77  94  76 /  30  20  50  40
Opa-Locka        95  79  94  78 /  30  30  50  50
Homestead        93  79  93  77 /  20  20  40  40
Fort Lauderdale  92  80  91  78 /  30  30  50  50
N Ft Lauderdale  93  79  93  78 /  30  30  50  50
Pembroke Pines   96  80  95  79 /  30  30  50  50
West Palm Beach  94  77  94  76 /  20  30  50  50
Boca Raton       94  78  93  77 /  30  30  50  50
Naples           92  78  93  78 /  10  20  30  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE....NC
AVIATION...17