328
FXUS62 KMFL 220648
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
248 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

With the mid-level shortwave continuing to propagate to
the east today, 500mb flow will veer to a more northerly
direction in nature. Combined with background northeasterly
surface flow prevailing, sea-breeze circulations will favor
convective initiation across the southern inland portions of our
area once again. With the Atlantic sea-breeze progressing further
inland, the greatest convective activity will center over
inland/suburban Miami-Dade, Mainland Monroe, and Collier Counties
this afternoon albeit with less coverage. As the shortwave
continues to propagate away, 500mb temperatures will continue to
warm with 500mb temps in the -5C to -7C range possible. This will
keep the majority of thunderstorm activity in the garden variety
form, although localized ascent along boundary collisions could
still support the potential of a quick pulse isolated strong to
severe capable of a wet microburst if the storm pulses up and
collapses in a quick fashion. High temperatures will range from
the upper 80s along the east coast to temperatures in the low to
mid 90s across southwestern Florida.

By Thursday, the mid-level ridge will continue to build and
remain centered over the Gulf of Mexico during this time frame as
the aforementioned shortwave remains in the western Atlantic
waters. Between these two synoptic features, South Florida will
remain in a light northerly 500mb flow regime with a lack of
synoptic forcing across the area with the subtropical jet located
well to the north of our region. At the surface, ridging situated
over the southeastern United States will allow for relatively
light winds across the region. Therefore, with a lack of the
aforementioned synoptic support, mesoscale patterns, such as the
sea-breeze circulation, will dictate temperatures and the most
probable locations for convective initiation and coverage which
will mainly focus across inland areas during the afternoon hours.
Typical thunderstorm hazards, such as heavy rainfall and gusty
winds, will be possible, but still cannot rule out isolated strong
to severe pulse storms that are able to take advantage of the
localized maximized ascent along boundary collisions even in the
background of a fairly benign pattern.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

The mesoscale driven weather pattern will continue for much of
the long-term period as surface ridging remains firmly in place
and synoptic features remain to the north of South Florida. With
the advection of the surface ridge to the east, easterly surface
flow across the region will remain dominant. This will act to
feature the hottest temperatures across inland areas as well as
the Lake Okeechobee region for the time being. With reinforcing
subsidence aloft, rain chances will remain fairly limited (20-30%
PoPs) across the region. High temperatures for the rest of the
week will range from the upper 80s to low 90s across the east
coast of South Florida to temperatures in the low to mid 90s
across southwestern Florida. By the weekend, the ridge of high
pressure will further strengthen across the region which will lead
to the continued warming trend across the area. High temperatures
for Memorial Day Weekend will vary from the low to mid 90s along
both coasts of South Florida with values in the upper 90s
potentially nearing 100 across inland areas. If you have outdoor
plans for Memorial Day Weekend, be sure to keep a close eye on the
forecast based on your location and take precautions to protect
against heat-related illnesses if you will be doing
strenuous/long-duration activity outdoors.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period.
Light and variable winds overnight will increase out of the east
later Wednesday morning. Scattered showers and storms may develop
across interior sections this afternoon as the sea breezes push
inland. Most of the activity should remain away from the
terminals, however, it may get close to KOPF, KMIA, and KTMB
during the afternoon and evening hours. At KAPF, winds will
increase out of the west southwest this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

Generally benign conditions should prevail across local waters
throughout the period. Locally enhanced winds and seas will be
possible in and around shower and thunderstorm activity across
our area waters.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

With onshore wind flow returning to the east coast of South
Florida, a gradual increase in rip current risks will continue
across the east coast through the remainder of the work-week. A
moderate risk of rip currents remains in place for Palm Beach
County beaches today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            90  78  91  78 /  40  20  30  10
West Kendall     90  74  91  74 /  40  20  30  20
Opa-Locka        90  76  91  76 /  40  20  30  10
Homestead        88  77  89  76 /  40  30  30  20
Fort Lauderdale  89  77  90  77 /  40  10  30  20
N Ft Lauderdale  89  76  91  76 /  30  10  30  10
Pembroke Pines   89  77  91  77 /  40  10  30  10
West Palm Beach  89  73  89  73 /  20  10  20  10
Boca Raton       88  76  89  76 /  30  10  30  10
Naples           92  75  92  77 /  20  30  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hadi
LONG TERM....Hadi
AVIATION...CWC