Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
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348 FXUS66 KMFR 290944 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 244 AM PDT Wed May 29 2024 .DISCUSSION...Ridging over the northeastern Pacific will build into the region today as yesterday`s trough slides to the east. This ridge will then remain in control through Friday, with dry conditions and a warming trend that will peak with well above normal highs Friday afternoon. The thermal trough will return during this time, resulting in strong north to northeast winds in the coast range and a Chetco Effect, which will lead to warmer temperatures around Brookings than elsewhere on the coast. A weak trough and front then arrive late Friday into early Saturday, and although very little, if any, measurable rain is expected outside of the immediate coast, temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler Saturday than on Friday. A second, much deeper trough will arrive late Sunday into Monday, and this will reinforce the cooling trend, bringing temperatures down below normal for Monday. Temperatures will only be half the story, however, as the system is forecast to produce measurable rain for almost all areas along and west of the Cascades, with a decent chance for some areas to the east as well. High pressure quickly returns, in strength, for the reminder of the forecast term (Tuesday and Wednesday), with temperatures quickly warming back to above normal, perhaps well into the 90s for some areas. -BPN && .AVIATION...29/12Z TAFs...Along the coast and just offshore. MVFR/VFR ceilings are currently being observed. These conditions will last into tomorrow morning before improving to VFR in the afternoon. The south coast should remain VFR through the TAF period. Inland, west of the Cascades, Ceilings are expected to remain VFR through the TAF period. Winds tomorrow afternoon will not be as strong as they were today. East of the Cascades, VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. The main concern will be moderate winds with peak gusts possibly nearing 25 kts at Klamath Falls tomorrow afternoon. - Schaaf/Hermansen && .MARINE...Updated 230 AM Wednesday, May 29, 2024...Relatively calm conditions are expected this morning with light to moderate winds and low seas. A thermal trough will develop during the day today resulting in increasing north winds that will reach Small Craft for all southern waters, except beyond 5 nm from shore west of Port Orford. The thermal trough will strengthen further late Wednesday night through at least Friday evening and this will result in Gale force winds for a good chunk of the southern waters, except beyond 40 nm from shore west of Cape Blanco. Meanwhile Small Craft Conditions will expand north over the rest of the waters that will last into at least Friday evening. The thermal trough will weaken overnight Friday into Saturday with north winds diminishing as an upper trough approaches. Calmer seas are expected by the weekend and into early next week. -Hermansen/Schaaf && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Gale Warning from 5 AM Thursday to 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ356- 376. && $$