Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
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460 FXUS66 KMFR 281200 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 500 AM PDT Tue May 28 2024 ...Updated AVIATION discussion... .DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery is showing some lower stratus along the coast and in the Coquille Valley and entering the Umpqua basin. Additionally, higher clouds associated with a frontal boundary remain offshore but are starting to fill in inland. There were a few thunderstorms yesterday east of the Cascades, and the area remains relatively moist. Additional showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible once again. Showers and storms are expected mainly across portions of the East Side, with a few showers occurring offshore and along northern Coos and Douglas Counties. However, most precipitation will be occurring north of our area. This front will push through southern Oregon tonight and it will also bring breezy west winds this afternoon and evening. Overnight, the lingering showers will dissipate. Temperatures today and Wednesday will be a bit cooler as well, but frost and freeze concerns are not expected. Conditions will dry out Wednesday into Saturday as a ridge of high pressure returns. This will help warm us up and dry us out once again. Then on Sunday into Monday, the next front will approach the Pacific Northwest and northern California. This front will have the potential to bring additional light precipitation to the area with showers in the forecast. Ensembles have large variations about the timing and strength of the front, but will go with the national blend of models for now. This front may bring temperatures back toward normal; but these details are likely to emerge as we get closer to that time frame. -Schaaf && .AVIATION...28/12Z TAFs...An upper trough is bringing some cloud cover to the Oregon coast and Umpqua Valley this morning. Levels over North Bend and Roseburg move between VFR and MVFR as ceilings shift. Ceilings over areas farther inland are expected to stay at VFR under high ceilings, but gusty winds are forecast for this afternoon especially east of the Cascades. While widespread showers are not expected, slight thunderstorm chances (10-15%) will be present over Lake, Modoc, and eastern Siskiyou counties this afternoon and evening. Winds and thunderstorm chances will decrease overnight, but some amount of cloud cover will persist through the TAF period especially over coastal areas. -TAD && .MARINE...Updated 230 AM Tuesday, May 28, 2024...Relatively calm conditions will continue today. Northerly winds will turn westerly this morning as an upper trough passes to the north. Swell will increase slightly, but remain unimpactful. A thermal trough will develop under upper level ridging on Wednesday afternoon, driving conditions through the rest of the week. North winds will return and bring wind-driven steep and very steep seas to all marine waters. Sustained winds will be in the 20 to 35 kt range at their highest, with the strongest winds expected south of Cape Blanco especially on Thursday afternoon and evening. Chances for gale gusts south of Cape Blanco will be very high (50-90%) from Wednesday afternoon through Friday afternoon, and there is a lesser (10-50%) chance of gales over the outer waters north of Cape Blanco as well. A Gale Watch is in place from Wednesday evening through Friday evening for all waters south of Cape Blanco where the chances are highest for gales. Meanwhile, steep seas and conditions hazardous to small craft are likely for all areas north of Cape Blanco during this time. Conditions could improve next weekend as a pattern change disrupts the thermal trough, and winds ease. -TAD/BR-y && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday afternoon for PZZ356-376. && $$