053
FXUS62 KMHX 200551
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
151 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure ridging builds in from the north keeping much of
the area dry through mid week before the next potential frontal
system late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 145 AM Monday...THigh pressure ridging extends S`wards
into the Carolinas in the wake of a S`ward moving cold front
with an area of low pressure well off the coast to the east and
a mid level trough to our south. High pressure ridging
continues to build S`wards keeping the area dry. Given the close
proximity of the two lows and the front widespread cloudcover
and steady NE winds remain across eastern portions of the FA.
As we near daybreak continued NE`rly flow should allow for low
stratus to once again overspread the eastern half of ENC, with
some uncertainty on how far west it  by daybreak. There remains
some uncertainty with how far inland any low stratus gets but
current thinking is anywhere along and east of Hwy 17 has the
best chance for widespread low clouds with lower chances the
further west you get. However, if there is a lack of cloud cover
across the western portions of the CWA there then would be a
low end threat for some patchy fog. Given the uncertainty in the
cloud cover tonight elected not to include fog in the forecast
for now but will have to monitor trends as the night
progresses. Lows get into the mid to upper 50s tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
As of 200 AM Monday...No major changes to the forecast at this
time.

Previous Discussion...As of 330 PM Sunday...High pressure
continues to nose into ENC, while low pressure spins well off
the Mid Atlantic coast. Stratus will plague Eastern NC advecting
in from the Atlantic on continued NE`rly flow, but we will
remain dry on Mon. Widespread cloudcover will keep temps cooler
than climo once again as highs range from the mid 60s OBX to the
low/mid 70s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 PM Sun...High pressure builds in from the north for
the first half of the workweek. A cold front will approach from
the west toward the latter half of the week.

Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure builds across the Mid-
Atlantic and Southeast. Expect dry conditions through Thursday,
along with steadily warming conditions. Temps will start out in
the 75-80 degree range on Tue, then by Wed and Thu, rise
through the 80s and back above climo. In fact, some areas may
flirt with 90 degree highs by Thu. Lows will be in the 50s to
start the pd, then rise into the 60s by mid week.

Friday through Sunday...Next potential weather maker in the
form of a shortwave trough and approaching cold front may arrive
by week`s end, bringing threat for thundershowers to the region
with a warm/humid airmass in place by then. Lots of
disagreement this far out, so pops only in the 30`s% at best.
Followed closer to climo, and kept thunder mainly in the
afternoon to early evening time periods, with very small to nil
shower chances overnight and morning periods.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Monday morning/...
As of 130 AM Monday...A narrow band of low stratus (IFR to MVFR
ceilings) is moving through the region, currently near KISO and
KOAJ. VFR conditions continue behind this line of stratus, with
a low fog threat just before sunrise this morning. Probs are
too low to put in the TAFs, with highest chances closer to I-95.
More widespread low stratus moves in with NE flow from NOBX
early this morning. There is quite a bit of uncertainty on how
far west this cloud deck moves. Most likely outcome is BKN/OVC
deck east of hwy 17, away from the TAF terminals. This deck will
persist through much of the day before decreasing in coverage
in the afternoon/evening Monday. Currently have SCT007 deck in
TAFs to cover the uncertainty. More substantial fog threat
possible Monday night into early Tuesday morning, with the
potential for IFR visibilities.


LONG TERM /Monday afternoon through Friday/...
As of 4 AM Sat...Pred VFR conditions are expected early through
mid to late week. Exception may be on Monday, when MVFR or
lower stratus possible in the morning hours, and again Mon
night, as nerly flow cont.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 330PM Sunday... Winds have been slightly lower than
initially forecast today in the wake of a cold front to the
south and low pressure well to the east as latest obs show
widespread NE`rly winds at 10-20 kts with gusts up near 25-30
kts. Strongest winds are noted across the larger inland sounds
and central coastal waters while 4-6 ft seas are noted along the
coastal waters this afternoon. Given the slightly lighter winds
have elected to cancel the SCA for the Neuse River on this
update while shortening the timeframe for the northern and
southern coastal waters SCA`s that are out. Otherwise general
trend is for NE winds to briefly lighten up this evening down to
10-15 kts with gusts up around 20-25 kts while seas along the
coastal waters remain around 4- 6 ft. As we get into Monday
continued NE`rly flow at 10-20 kts with gusts around 20-25 kts
will be possible as ridging becomes entrenched across the Mid-
Atlantic and low pressure remains quasi stationary well out to
the east. Strongest winds found along our coastal waters while
seas remain around 4-6 ft.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 4 AM Sun...SCA cond linger into Monday for Pamlico Sound
and the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet as gusty ne winds
keep seas elevated above 6 ft. Seas expected to drop below 6 ft
Mon night all waters as high pres begins to build in and long
fetch nerly winds diminish.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ152-154-
     156.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
     AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF/RJ
SHORT TERM...RCF/RJ
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/RJ
MARINE...TL/RCF