Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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272 FXUS62 KMHX 272356 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 756 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will then move through late tonight and Tuesday. The next front moves through late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... As of 750 PM...Severe threat appears to be winding down. Last remnants of a substantial cluster of supercells currently moving off the OBX. It appears some subsidence and mid level dry air limited convective initiation farther south. So, tornado watch has been cancelled for all except NE NC, which will likely be cancelled once current convection moves offshore. There could still be some additional convective development to the SW this evening, but current model guidance indicates this may not happen, and if it does will only be weak. As a result, severe threat for the rest of the night is fairly low, but nonzero, as we still have quite a favorable kinematic and thermodynamic environment in place. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... As of 310 PM Mon...The cold front will stall near the coast Tue as the base of the upper trough approaches from the NW. The front combined with a pinned seabreeze should be convergence to generate scattered showers, with best chances in the afternoon. Showers confined to the coast early with chances increasing toward HWY17 in the afternoon as seabreeze tries to propagate inland, likely having a difficult time with low level westerly flow developing. Highs in the 80s, though will feel a bit cooler than past several days, esp inland with dewpoints grad falling into the 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 0400 Monday...Clearing through the week as cool high pressure builds in. Rest of Workweek...Upper trough persists with shortwaves passing through the base of the trough Wednesday and again on Thursday with weak SFC trough developing inland behind the front. This troughing inland will delay the arrival of the SFC high from the NW, keeping temps fairly warm Wed. Temps cool end of the week as the high pressure begins spilling over the area, MaxTs in upper 70s, MinTs in the 50s. Forecast remains dry through this period. Weekend...Upper trough swings through the East Coast and offshore with SFC almost directly overhead Saturday morning pushing offshore through the weekend. Get back to warm Serly flow regime early next week ahead of the next front. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Tuesday Evening/... As of 8 PM Mon...VFR conditions are expected through the short term. Most of the convection this afternoon missed the TAF sites, but there could still be an isolated strong to severe storm tonight. Cloudbases should remain around 5000 ft, but partly cloudy skies expected tonight and into tomorrow morning. LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/... As of 400 AM Monday...Showers and thunderstorms are expected possible Tues with a drying trend setting up for the remainder of the workweek. Periods of sub- VFR conditions are possible but flight cats expected to remain VFR outside of convection. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/... As of 310 PM Mon...Latest obs show moderate to breezy SSW winds 10-20 kt with seas 2-3 ft. Southerly flow will continue to steadily increase through the afternoon, peaking this evening at 15-25kt. SCA continues for the waters, sounds and rivers with potential for several hours of 25 kt gusts and with seas possibly building to 4-6 ft over the outer central waters. As the cold front approaches tonight, the gradient may relax a bit with winds grad diminishing towards sunrise. Front will stall near of along the coast Tue as moderate S/SW winds continue with seas subsiding to 2-4 ft. First round of thunderstorms continues to move through early this afternoon, with additional storms likely to impact the waters later this afternoon into tonight. Where thunderstorms occur, there is the potential for 40-60 kt gusts, hail, and waterspouts. LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/... As of 0400 Monday...The front finally pushes offshore overnight/early Wed. SWerly winds 10-15G20kt. Winds briefly turn Nerly behind the front early Wed before becoming SWerly again as SFC trough approaches and moves through Wed night, turning winds Nerly for the remainder of the work week. Seas generally falling through the week; 2-4ft Tues, 2-3ft Wed, 1-3ft late week. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ131-136- 137-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ135-150. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154-156- 158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CQD/SGK SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...CEB AVIATION...CQD/SGK/CEB MARINE...CQD/CEB