473
FXUS63 KMKX 230324
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1024 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet and pleasant weather through Thursday.

- Next round of showers and thunderstorms will be Friday
  morning through Friday night. There is a marginal risk (1 out
  of 5) for the southern 1/3 of Wisconsin, mainly for gusty
  winds and small hail.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 1012 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Forecast details remain on track this evening. Overall,
subsidence should keep a lid on any potential fog overnight and
temperatures will cool to the upper 40s to low 50s for lows.

CMiller

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 315 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Tonight and Thursday:

Radar and GOES satellite depict isolated weak thunderstorm
development over far southeastern MN, drifting east-
southeastward towards our western CWA. The current 15% PoPs for
later this afternoon / evening are likely to be increased
towards 30% (perhaps locally higher) for areas west of a Madison
to Fond Du Lac line now that convective initiation is
confirmed. Severe weather is not expected from these storms at
this time, given limited instability. With CAPE around 500 to
750 joules and effective shear around 30 kts, and if storm
clusters become more organized, small hail and sub-severe wind
gusts cannot be ruled out.

Skies clear out and winds decelerate tonight, leaving dry /
pleasant weather for Thursday. A light southwest breeze is
expected to partially abate the lake-breeze on Thursday, with
inland areas reaching the upper 70s.

Sheppard

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 315 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Thursday night through Wednesday:

Medium-amplitude perturbations in the polar jet continue to
rotate through the upper air pattern, continuing the trend of
off and on shower and thunderstorm chances through the end of
the forecast period.

For Friday, a low pressure trough passes through WI, pulling
roughly 1000 joules of CAPE into the CWA, co-located with 30 to
50 kts of deep shear. Storms are not currently expected to be
severe, but small hail and localized sub-severe wind gusts may
occur. As the trough progresses east, storms clear out late
Friday night, leaving quiet weather and daytime highs around 70
for Saturday. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms
would be Sunday morning through Sunday night (60% chance). Rain
may continue at times into Monday (50% chance) in the cold
sector of the passing low pressure system, but ensembles
indicate limited instability and hence much lower chances for
thunder into Monday.

Sheppard

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1024 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Looking quiet and dry tonight through tomorrow with mostly
clear skies overnight, and some scattered daytime cu tomorrow
with bases from 7000 to 9000 feet. Winds will become light and
variable overnight, but return to southwesterly tomorrow with
speeds ranging from 5 to 10 knots.

CMiller

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 315 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Low pressure around 29.1 inches will continue northeastward
across Ontario, weakening to 29.3 inches tonight. Gusty southwest
winds up to 30 kt will continue through this afternoon,
especially over the northern half of the lake. Light to modest
southwest winds will then prevail over the entire lake for tonight
and Thursday.

Winds will become east-southeast on Friday as a low pressure trough
around 29.5 inches approaches from Wisconsin. Winds will shift to
the west in the wake of the trough Friday night. High pressure
around 29.9 inches will overspread the Lake Michigan on Saturday.
Low pressure around 29.3 inches will slide across the Midwest Sunday
and across Lower Michigan Monday.

Sheppard

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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