Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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080 FXUS63 KMKX 221545 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1045 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty westerly winds up to 30 mph are expected across southern Wisconsin today. Winds decelerate gradually this evening. - Isolated showers and weak thunderstorms may develop in the mid afternoon through evening hours today. No severe storms are expected. - Next round of showers and thunderstorms will be Friday, but no severe storms are anticipated. && .UPDATE... Issued 1045 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 West winds with frequent gusts to 30 mph are ongoing across the CWA, and are expected to continue this afternoon before gradually decelerating this evening. CAMs do hint at isolated development of showers and weak thunderstorms in the mid afternoon and evening hrs today, but HREF ensemble maximum SBCAPE is roughly 1000 joules, and severe weather from said storms is unlikely. PoPs are currently 5 to 15% percent for said activity, but could be increased to 20-30% if and where isolated development appears on radar. Sheppard && .SHORT TERM... Issued 424 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Today through Thursday: Gusty southwest to west winds are ongoing behind the cold frontal passage. Gusts up to 30 kt/34 mph are common right now, with higher gusts in far southeast WI. Low clouds spread into all of southern WI and will remain in place through the day and possibly into the evening. The clouds are due to steep low level lapse rates with cyclonic flow overhead and are in the 925-850mb height range with bases between 1300 and 2500 ft AGL. Clouds may be thick enough and there may be another push of vorticity advection this afternoon to support the development of a few showers or sprinkles, mainly west of Madison. High temperatures today will be much cooler, in the lower 70s. Winds will diminish quickly this evening as an inversion sets in. With clearing skies and the light winds, patchy fog is possible early Thursday morning as lows drop down to the lower 50s. Cronce && .LONG TERM... Issued 424 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Friday through Tuesday: A low pressure trough will approach from the Northern Plains and cross WI on Friday. Highs will creep into the upper 70s to around 80. The main closed upper low will be stationed over the MN/ND border, but the vorticity will extend southeastward as it tries to phase with a weaker shortwave trough tracking across the southeast States. The surface front will lag behind the upper trough and usher cooler and drier air into southern WI Friday night, ending the precip chances. Elevated instability up to 1000 j/kg but limited shear will mean thunderstorms will bear watching for small hail and gusty winds. That precip will end Friday evening with the passage of a cold front. Highs will only be around 70 on Saturday with sunshine and high pressure. This cooler pattern will stick around through Tuesday The next shortwave trough is expected to roll across WI and IL on Sunday and bring another round of showers and a few storms. This system will be slower to move out of the area, so shower chances linger through Monday night and potentially Tuesday thanks to the upper low sitting over the Eastern Great Lakes. Warmer air returns Wednesday. Cronce && .AVIATION... Issued 1045 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 MVFR ceilings currently overspread the region in the cold sector of the departed low pressure system, but gradual lifting and scattering of the cloud deck is expected to unfold early this afternoon, leaving most areas VFR by the mid afternoon. Gusty west winds continue today, decelerating gradually this evening. Light southwest winds and clear skies expected tonight. Isolated showers and weak thunderstorms could develop today in the mid afternoon and evening, then clear out tonight. Confidence is too low (15%) for inclusion in the TAFs at this time, but amendments will be made if needed. Sheppard && .MARINE... Issued 424 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Southwest winds are blustery behind the cold front so I extended the Gale Warning until 6 AM. For the nearshore areas, the gale remains in effect for areas south of the North Point Light until 6 AM, and the gale for the northern zones was cancelled. There is a Small Craft Advisory in effect for gusty offshore winds up to 25 kt through late afternoon. Southeast winds will increase Friday as a low pressure trough tracks into WI, but winds and waves should remain below Small Craft Advisory levels. Cronce && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 5 PM Wednesday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee