Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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419 FXUS63 KMKX 250319 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1019 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few thunderstorms linger into late tonight, with no severe weather expected. - Another round of widespread showers and storms on Sunday with at least a small potential for severe thunderstorms. && .UPDATE... Issued 1019 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 A final line of broken showers and thunderstorms is progressing eastward towards Lake Michigan, with lightning and pockets of heavy rainfall with up to 1 inch per hour rates the main concerns. With the line being progressive, not anticipating flooding concerns. Behind this line of showers and storms, moistening in the Wisconsin River Valley combined with calm winds have lead to patchy fog in low lying areas and very low clouds in the vicinity. Although skies are clearing and therefore radiational cooling would traditionally reinforce this fog production, am currently not concerned with this as the cold front is finally sneaking into far southwestern Wisconsin and bringing steady northwesterly winds and dewpoints in the 40s. This should assist with scrubbing out any fog development in the next few hours. MH && .SHORT TERM... Issued 328 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Tonight through Sunday night: The lines of storms over ern IA into sw WI are aligned with sfc-850 mb frontogenesis which will shift ewd late this afternoon and evening. Given the lack of meaningful MLCAPE and very high MLCIN, expect these storms to remain elevated. Thus large hail would be the main threat with these storms, but heavy rainfall and localized flooding will be possible over sw WI. Nwly winds and cold advection will then drop temps into the middle 40s to lower 50s by sunrise Sat. High pressure will then shift across the state on Sat with temps rebounding into the lower 70s for the afternoon. Another round of strong cyclogenesis is then expected Sun as an amplifying shortwave trough approaches from the central Great Plains. The 992 mb sfc low will track from sw WI to east central WI with widespread showers and storms for srn WI. There is uncertainty with the degree of sfc based CAPE and convection for Sun but strong lift and shear would support a SVR risk especially over se WI. Gehring && .LONG TERM... Issued 328 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Monday through Friday: A couple shortwave troughs within nwly flow aloft will then affect srn WI for Mon-Tue with chances for showers and storms. High amplitude ridging will then try to shift ewd into the Upper MS River Valley and wrn Great Lakes late in the week. This will bring a warming trend and drier wx. Gehring && .AVIATION... Issued 1019 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Showers and storms producing visibility down to 4 miles will continue to progress southeastward through SBM/MKE/RAC/ENW and move offshore into Lake Michigan within the next two hours. Expect lightning and locally heavy rain, especially in SBM/MKE. Not anticipating flooding, but rainfall rates upwards of 0.5 inch per hour are possible. Ceilings beneath heavier rainfall are falling near 1500 ft, while ceilings elsewhere remain VFR. Areas MSN and westward may see brief pockets of ceilings near 1000 ft due to slowly lowering cloud bases, but clouds are expected to exit within the next hour as northwesterly winds increase behind a cold front slowly progressing southeastward. This cold frontal feature is expected to reach Lake Michigan terminals around 06Z. West northwesterly gusts up to 17 kt are possible behind the front. MH && .MARINE... Issued 328 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Low pressure around 29.4 inches moving into northwest Minnesota will track into far southeast Manitoba tonight. Its cold front will progress eastward across Lake Michigan late tonight. Thus modest east to southeast winds this afternoon and evening will shift westerly late tonight and continue into Saturday morning. High pressure around 29.9 inches will then move across Lake Michigan for Saturday afternoon and evening, before another low pressure area around 29.4 inches approaches from the west and moves across either central or northern Lake Michigan Sunday night. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will move across the lake tonight and once again Sunday and Sunday night. Gehring && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee