Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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227 FXUS63 KMKX 270813 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 313 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chance for showers / thunderstorms this afternoon and evening (roughly 40% chance). Severe weather is not expected from these storms. - Scattered showers & storms again Tuesday. Severe weather is unlikely in this activity. - Dry & pleasant conditions prevail from Wednesday through the end of the week. Sunday will be the next chance for precipitation. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 315 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Today through Tuesday night: The surface low will continue to slide out of the area and into the central Great Lakes as we dry out this morning. With the troughing pattern we are in expect another few rounds of showers and storms across the CWA, the first of which will come through this afternoon/evening. A fairly strong shortwave will slide in by this afternoon with enough mid level moisture to support showers from the mid-afternoon through much of the evening. In addition there will likely be some instability with this system which should allow for some storms. While we cannot completely rule out a stronger storm, in large part storms are expected to remain weak given the lack of shear. Popcorn convection activity from the late afternoon into the early evening will feature the best chance for stronger storms, primarily for the western half of the CWA. This is due to better lapse rates (~7C/km) and instability (~1000J/kg) which could allow for a storm or two to grow on the taller side. While chances for precip are mainly 30-40% this is due largely to the scattered nature as we expect areas within the CWA will see precip from this system. After midnight showers should be expected to dissipate leaving at least a period of drier conditions into the morning hours. There remains some uncertainty of the next shortwave/trough coming through, primarily with respect to onset timing. However models are largely in agreement that the region will see precipitation, likely due to the strength of the system, though still scattered (40-50% chances). This looks to bring scattered shower activity from late this morning through at least part of the evening hours, with the best storm chances during the afternoon hours. With regard to storm chances, stronger storms are not expected due to a lack of shear but we could see a similar situation arise as Monday but instability will be less overall. Precip will gradually dissipate into the evening as the surface high begins nudging in as with the upper ridge. Kuroski && .LONG TERM... Issued 315 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Tuesday night through Sunday: By midweek it appears for at least a short period we will finally return to drier conditions with higher pressure sliding in with ridging building in aloft. Friday and even Saturday has trended drier with the latest model runs and the next system continues to be delayed in its arrival. However Sunday still appears likely to feature a system pushing in with still uncertainty in timing. It will be the next system to watch over the next few days as depending on timing this system could pose some severe concerns with instability and better shear associated with it. Kuroski && .AVIATION... Issued 315 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 IFR/MVFR CIGS (some periodic dips to LIFR remain) continue to dominate the region as low pressure gradually slides out today. A gradual return to VFR is expected by the mid afternoon, though there will be breezy northwest winds during the day. In addition, we will see scattered shower/storm potential (30-40%) this afternoon through the evening which could cause temporary VSBY reductions in heavier rains. Tonight expect showers to gradually dissipate leaving a largely dry rest of the night with VFR conditions. Kuroski && .MARINE... Issued 315 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Low pressure will slowly move across northern lower Michigan and Lake Huron today. As the low moves into lower Michigan breezy northwest winds will be expected for the remainder of the day. These winds are expected reach thresholds for a Small Craft Advisory and thus one is in effect from this morning through the mid afternoon. West to northwest flow will persist into mid week, with winds gradually weakening over time as high pressure eventually builds into the region. The high will hold strong into the early weekend with light to modest north winds from Wednesday through at least Friday. Kuroski && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...7 AM Monday to 4 PM Monday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee