Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
774 FXUS63 KMKX 310231 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 931 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet and dry pattern continues through Friday. - Showers chances (30-60%) return later Friday night through Saturday, with a small chance (10-20%) for thunder during the day Saturday. - Warm and humid conditions are expected Monday through at least Tuesday along with a chance (30-50%) for thunderstorms each day. && .UPDATE... Issued 931 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 High pressure continues to slide east across Lake Michigan late this evening. High clouds are slowly streaming in from the west with Satellite showing a scattered to broken deck across portions of western and southwestern Wisconsin. These high level clouds will continue to stream in from the west overnight which will help keep conditions mild overnight. Dry and quiet weather will continue into Friday afternoon. Patterson && .SHORT TERM... Issued 202 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Tonight through Saturday: It will be on the cool side again under high pressure tonight. Winds will be light, though more high clouds are expected, which should help limit some of the radiational cooling. Temps aloft will gradually be on the rise as well, resulting in low temps a couple/few degrees milder than last night. Warmer temps will continue to advect into the area Friday as the high slides eastward and southerly low level flow develops. Highs will be back to near or slightly above normal, despite increasing mid to high level clouds from the west later in the day. A lake breeze is likely by early Friday afternoon, so highs will be a bit cooler near the lake. Surface low pressure is expected to approach from the southwest Friday night and slide by to the south of the state on Saturday. Moisture will increase as this system rolls through the region, with precipitable water values rising to 1-1.25" by mid-day Saturday. The better lift will be more closely tied to the surface low and upper level trough, though 850-700 mb warm air advection may be enough to warrant higher widespread precip chances eventually. For now, will keep precip chances in the 40 to 60 percent range based on latest HREF and NBM ensemble probs. Some uncertainty remains with the exact track and strength of the surface low, which will impact precip location and amounts as well. Will keep thunder chances on the lower end given limited CAPE per the bulk of model solutions. Temps Saturday will be cooler in the east and southeast due to onshore winds and the track of the low, with milder temps aloft and a better chance at breaks in the cloud cover towards the west/northwest. DDV && .LONG TERM... Issued 202 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Sunday through Thursday: The bulk of model solutions show a return of dry weather on Sunday, as high pressure briefly slides through the area. Warmer temps will return under southerly winds, with highs near 80 away from Lake Michigan. A lake breeze will keep it a bit cooler near the lake once again. Warmer temps will persist into the first half of next week along with increased moisture and shower/storm chances. Plenty of moisture and instability will be in place Monday as a shortwave moves through, so kept the higher NBM shower/storm chances in the forecast. Forcing will be weaker Tuesday, but a weak wrinkle or two in the flow may kick off afternoon/evening showers and storms as deeper moisture and instability linger across southern Wisconsin. Stronger forcing is then currently expected to move through Tuesday night into early Wednesday as the main trough/front pushes through the area. Have precip chances capped at 50% for now due to some timing uncertainty with the front, but think these chances will go up as confidence increases and the timing is fine tuned over the next couple days. Temps are expected to fall back to at least normal values Thursday behind the departed cold front. Could be a lingering small chance (20-30%) for showers if the upper low is slow to exit, as is currently suggested by the 12Z deterministic ECMWF and Canadian solutions. DDV && .AVIATION... Issued 931 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period. Mostly clear skies late this evening will become partly to mostly cloudy by Friday afternoon. Overnight tonight there are some high level clouds streaming in from the west bringing in a scattered deck. By Friday late morning/early afternoon the cloud deck is expected to thicken and slightly lower with more mid level clouds beginning to move into southern Wisconsin. Some lower ceilings to MVFR range will be possible just beyond the forecast period as rain begins to move in from the west for Friday night into Saturday. Any lower ceilings are likely to be with the rain. Light and variable winds overnight tonight will increase slightly out of the south as diurnal heating increases. As the sunsets Friday night, light and variable winds have a potential to return. Patterson && .MARINE... Issued 202 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 High pressure overhead this afternoon will gradually slide eastward tonight into Friday. This will result in winds becoming southerly tomorrow and picking up a little as well. Low pressure will then slide by to the south on Saturday, resulting in east to north winds across the southern lake, while winds will remain more southerly in the north. Lighter and somewhat variable winds winds will return on Sunday as high pressure briefly moves through the area. Southerly winds will return and increase a bit early next week ahead of the next approaching low. DDV && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee