Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
688 FXUS63 KMKX 300808 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 308 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet and dry pattern continue today through the start of Friday. - Next chance (20-50%) for showers and thunderstorms return later Friday into Saturday. Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances continue for the end of the weekend through early next week. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 305 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Today through Friday: Influence from the surface high and upper-level ridge will continue today through Friday morning. Expect another day with light winds as the high works it way overhead. May see temps a degree or a few warmer than yesterday given the ample sunshine. Given the light flow and strong thermal gradient between the warm temps inland and cooler lake water temps, expect another lake breeze to develop and push inland through the afternoon. This will also once again keep temps cooler by the lake limiting highs to the mid to upper 60s rather than the lower 70s inland. While the surface and upper-level ridge axis gradually shifts east tonight, will see another cool night given the weaker flow and ample radiational cooler under clear skies. Looking at overnight lows in the 40s again. With the surface high progged to be over the eastern Great Lakes by Friday morning, expect more southerly flow and WAA to push into southern WI. This will not only bring warmer temps in the mid to upper 70s, but will also begin to advect higher dewpoints (>50F) into the area. While expecting Friday during the day to remain mostly dry, there are a few model solutions such as the 00z HRRR along with the RAP that true to bring the upstream shower into our western CWA in the afternoon. However, the better upper-level forcing will remain upstream closer to the mid-level trough and will have to compete with a stout dry layer between 700-850mb as well as near the surface. Wagner && .LONG TERM... Issued 305 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Friday night through Wednesday: Friday night into Saturday morning will bring our next chance for showers and thunderstorms to southern WI. However, chances remain around 50% or less at this time given the uncertainty on how the different model solutions handle the phasing of the main upper-level trough across the northern Plains and a shortwave trough lifting up from the south-central Plains. Most solutions place southern WI in between the two upper-level features where showers and storms are either triggered by the diffuse cold frontal boundary extending down from the surface low over the Hudson Bay region or another weak (around 1010mb) surface low lifting across MO/southern IL/IN. Thus depending on your location will dictate what may drive you shower/storm chances as well as amounts. The cold frontal driven activity may not bring as much in the way of totals and mainly affect the northwestern half of the CWA. While higher rainfall amounts may be more associated with the surface low lifting across IL/IN where the better moisture looks to reside and affect southeastern WI. However, areas that see this activity will be dependent on where exactly the low track and a further south track may ultimately keep most of the rain south of the WI/IL border as some solutions suggest. While uncertainty on the late Friday and Saturday activity remain, there is still a potential to see rainfall across portions of southern WI. Things look to dry out briefly for Sunday as the upper-level trough lifts northeast out of the area. Then the pattern looks more active with periodic shower and storm chances early next week with a series of mid-level disturbances traversing across the region. Main windows for addition shower and storm chances will be Monday and again Wednesday, but there continues to be run-to-run model differences and will need to monitor the forecast for updates on shower and storm potential. Otherwise, continue to see a trend for warmer temps for the start meteorological summer with daily highs looking to top off in the upper 70s to low 80s. Wagner && .AVIATION... Issued 305 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 VFR conditions will prevail across southern WI as high pressure meanders over the region today before sliding east Friday. Expect to see light and variable winds through the morning. Will likely to see another lake breeze develop this afternoon where winds would briefly pick up winds along it as it pushes inland and mainly affect the terminals closer to Lake Michigan through the afternoon. The lake breeze should weaken by time it reaches MSN and JVL and mainly just be wind shift. Otherwise, light and variable winds return overnight under mostly clear skies. High clouds then begin to increase and more southerly winds will pick up heading into Friday. Wagner && .MARINE... Issued 305 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Light and variable winds are expected today as high pressure meanders over Lake Michigan. Then the high pressure will gradually slide east Friday and winds begin to pick up and turn more southerly through the day. For southern half of the Lake, winds briefly shift to the east Saturday as a weak low pressure tracks south of Lake Michigan. However, southerly winds will return and persist through the remainder of the weekend. Otherwise, there will be periods of showers and thunderstorms Saturday and then Monday through Wednesday. Wagner && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee