929
FXUS62 KMLB 271310
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
910 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 910 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

The 10z XMR sounding indicates a slight moistening above 500mb
with relatively similar conditions through the rest of the column,
when compared to yesterday`s 23z sounding. A near-surface
inversion will be slow to erode through the day, if it even does
so. Model guidance suggests a persistent inversion, along with a
weak wind profile over central Florida, will preclude much in the
way of convection this afternoon. If any showers or isolated
storms do develop, locations with the best chance for activity
will be along the east coast sea breeze, generally from near
Melbourne southward to Lake Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast.
However, very low confidence exists in any measurable rain today.

Hot temperatures will remain the headline story through the
afternoon, with forecast highs in the mid to upper 90s, perhaps
approaching the century mark across southern interior locations.
Peak heat index values are still expected to top out around 100 to
105, so make sure to take breaks in the shade or air conditioning
and stay well-hydrated.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 721 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

VFR conditions prevailing, with another generally dry day forecast.
A few showers or lightning storms will be possible along and inland
from the Treasure Coast this afternoon, but confidence on timing and
coverage is too low to include a VCSH/TS mention at this time.
Light westerly flow this morning will back southeasterly this
afternoon along the coast, as the sea breeze develops. Wind gusts up
to 20kts will be possible behind the sea breeze, mainly along the
Treasure Coast. The sea breeze is not forecast to make it quite as
far inland as the last several days, meeting the west coast breeze
east of MCO. After sunset, light winds will once again veer
offshore.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Today-Tonight...Favorable boating conditions will be present across
the local Atlantic waters today with seas between 1 to 3 feet and
south-southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. The east coast sea breeze will
develop, causing wind to become south-southeast later this
afternoon. Mostly dry conditions are forecast through today, with
increasing rain and storm chances expected into the overnight hours.
Any storms that develop tonight may be capable of producing
occasional to frequent cloud-to-water lightning strikes, gusty
winds, and heavy downpours.

Tuesday-Friday...Favorable boating conditions are forecast to
continue through the remainder of the forecast period, with seas
generally between1 to 3 feet and winds remaining below 15 knots.
Wind direction will vary through the period, with winds becoming
onshore each afternoon due to the development of the sea breeze. A
weak frontal boundary is forecast to approach the local Atlantic
waters on Tuesday, with increasing rain and storm chances forecast.
Wednesday through the remainder of the work week, rain and storm
chances will remain in the forecast across the local waters. Any
storms that develop will be capable of producing lightning strikes,
gusty winds, and heavy downpours. Locally higher seas may also be
possible near stronger storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Minimum RH values in the 30 to 40 percent range across the interior
will lead to sensitive fire weather conditions today. Winds are
forecast to remain below 15 mph across the area. The heat continues,
with afternoon highs in the mid 90s to around 100 and peak heat
indices in the 100 to 105 range. Fire conditions will improve
slightly on Tuesday due to increasing moisture, but storms and
associated lightning strikes could lead to some concerns. Minimum RH
values will then drop back into the 35 to 45 percent range through
the remainder of the week, with some areas dropping to 30 percent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  95  73  93  71 /   0   0  40  20
MCO  97  75  95  73 /   0   0  40  20
MLB  94  75  92  73 /  10  20  40  30
VRB  95  74  94  72 /  10  20  40  40
LEE  94  75  94  73 /   0   0  50  10
SFB  97  74  96  73 /   0   0  50  20
ORL  97  76  95  75 /   0   0  40  20
FPR  96  73  95  71 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaper
AVIATION...Leahy