894
FXUS62 KMLB 290754
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
354 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

- Heat continues, with afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper
  90s through Thursday

- Sensitive fire weather conditions persist

Today-Tonight...A weak cool front drops into the local area today,
ushering in much drier air for northern portions of the forecast
area. PWATs from around Orlando northward will fall to around 1"
this afternoon, while areas to the south remain around 1.25-1.6".
Thus, much lower rain and thunderstorm chances today for most
areas, with CAMs only supporting convection for areas along the
Treasure Coast and across Okeechobee County. PoPs 20-30% in this
area this afternoon, while PoPs remain below 15% elsewhere.
Thunderstorms will need to overcome dry air in the mid-levels.
However, should they develop, they will be capable of gusty winds
to around 50mph due to forecast DCAPE around 1200J/kg, lightning
strikes, locally heavy downpours, and small hail.

Light northerly winds are forecast this morning, but will become
onshore this afternoon, as the sea breeze develops and begins to
move inland. A later onset of the sea breeze will allow for
afternoon temperatures to once again soar into the mid to upper
90s across the interior, with lower 90s along the coast. The sites
with the best chance for seeing a record high today will be
Leesburg and Sanford, which have the lowest current record high
temperatures for the date of 95 and 98 degrees, respectively.
Fortunately, drier air will provide some relief from higher heat
indices.

Any convection that manages to develop will diminish this evening,
with dry conditions then prevailing for the overnight hours.
Overnight low temperatures are forecast in the upper 60s to lower
70s.

Thursday-Friday...The aforementioned front lingers in the vicinity
of the local area through the remainder of the work week.
Continued dry air on Thursday is forecast to further limit shower
and thunderstorm chances, with generally no mentionable PoPs
forecast. The exception is a slight chance (~15%) of showers and
storms along the north shore of Lake Okeechobee in the afternoon.
Otherwise, a near rinse and repeat scenario to Wednesday is
expected, with a late sea breeze allowing afternoon highs to rise
into the mid to upper 90s inland and lower 90s along the coast.

By Friday enough moisture looks to be able to seep back into the
local area to aid a passing upper level trough in supporting
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the interior. PoPs
increase to 20-30% across the area, though an increase in onshore
flow looks to enhance the east coast sea breeze, with the
collision occurring on the western half of the peninsula. A
slightly earlier onset of the sea breeze will finally provide a
small amount of relief from near-record high temperatures. Highs
Friday afternoon forecast in the upper 80s to near 90 along the
coast and the lower to mid-90s inland. Overnight lows remaining
in the upper 60s to lower 70s each day.

The Weekend-Early Next Week...The weak cool front is forecast to
finally push south of the area Saturday, as a ridge builds into
the western Atlantic. Models continue to differ on the amount of
dry air that will filter in behind the front. So, have maintained
NBM PoPs of 20-30% each day, though this is likely generous. Will
also need to monitor the thunderstorm threat, as dry air in the
mid and upper levels will likely prevent most deep updrafts. The
east coast sea breeze looks to remain dominant in prevailing
onshore flow, increasing to up to 15mph this weekend, with higher
gusts. Stronger onshore flow will help to keep high temperatures
nearer to normal, in the upper 80s to lower 90s. A few mid-80s
will even be possible along the coast. Overnight lows in the mid
to upper 60s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Today-Thursday...Generally favorable boating conditions prevail
through mid-week. A weak cool front pushes into the area today,
confining afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances to the
Treasure Coast waters. By Thursday, no mentionable PoPs are
forecast for the local Atlantic waters. Northwesterly winds early
in the mornings will veer northeast/east into the afternoons, as
the sea breeze develops. Winds remaining under 15kts. Seas 1-2ft.

Friday-Sunday...Boating conditions will deteriorate slightly into
this weekend, as high pressure building into the western Atlantic
increases onshore winds to around 15kts or even 15-20kts at times.
PoPs remain 30% or less through the period. Seas 1-3ft Friday will
build to up to 4-5ft this weekend, as winds increase.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Today...Drier air filters into the local area today, with min RH values
falling to 25-35% over the interior west of I-95 and 40-50% for
coastal locations. Very near critical fire weather conditions are
expected today, with light northerly winds this morning veering
onshore at around 10mph this afternoon, very dry fuels, and
excellent dispersion. Temperatures will also rise into the mid to
upper 90s over the interior and lower 90s along the coast. A few
showers or lightning storms will be possible along and inland
from the Treasure Coast this afternoon, but precipitation is not
otherwise forecast.

Thursday-This Weekend...Similar conditions will persist into
Thursday, with min RH once again forecast between 25-35% west of
I-95 and 40-50% along the coast. Onshore winds are expected to
increase to around 10mph in the afternoon hours, with very good to
excellent dispersion and high temperatures in the 90s. The
difference will be the lack of forecast precipitation, with only
areas along the northern shore of Lake Okeechobee forecast at a
15% chance of rain and storms.

Will begin to see some improvement in min RH late week into this
weekend. However, min RH values will remain near-critical over
the interior. Very sensitive fire weather conditions will persist,
as onshore winds are forecast to increase to around 15mph and
precipitation chances remain low.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 152 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Mainly VFR through the TAF period. Weak front moves south into
the area later this morning and stalls south of Orlando in he
afternoon. Winds becoming NNW to N 10-12 knots and gusty behind
the front then veering E/NE as the inland-moving east coast sea
breeze pushes steadily inland during the afternoon. Most terminals
will be dry Wed though isolated SHRA/TSRA will be possible near
and to the south of the front, mainly across Okeechobee County and
the Treasure Coast in the aftn. Greatest potential looks to be
near KSUA, so have maintained a VCSH mention there starting at
17Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  92  70  90  71 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  97  72  96  72 /  10   0  10   0
MLB  92  72  90  73 /  10   0  10  10
VRB  93  71  91  71 /  20   0  10  10
LEE  96  71  95  72 /   0   0  10   0
SFB  97  71  95  71 /  10   0  10   0
ORL  97  73  96  73 /  10   0  10   0
FPR  93  70  91  70 /  20   0  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leahy
AVIATION...Kelly