Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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636 FXUS62 KMLB 290552 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 152 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 152 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 Mainly VFR through the TAF period. Weak front moves south into the area later this morning and stalls south of Orlando in he afternoon. Winds becoming NNW to N 10-12 knots and gusty behind the front then veering E/NE as the inland-moving east coast sea breeze pushes steadily inland during the afternoon. Most terminals will be dry Wed though isolated SHRA/TSRA will be possible near and to the south of the front, mainly across Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast in the aftn. Greatest potential looks to be near KSUA, so have maintained a VCSH mention there starting at 17Z. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 355 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Now-Tonight...Scattered shower and isolated lightning storm activity continues this afternoon, which so far has been focused from Melbourne northward. However, activity is beginning to take shape across Okeechobee County and will likely evolve toward the Treasure Coast counties late this afternoon and evening. Where the most organized storms are occurring, wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph have been observed, along with heavy downpours and occasional lightning strikes. A brief cool down is provided by convection as well, with some locations dropping into the mid 70s to low 80s. Chance to low-end likely PoPs continue south through the evening, eventually translating offshore by midnight. The strongest activity may produce wind gusts to 50 mph, occasional lightning strikes, and localized heavy rainfall. Wednesday-Friday...Drier air filters south across the area on Wednesday as surface flow veers to the north-northeast. The east coast sea breeze will stay active through the remainder of the week, pushing farther inland each afternoon. Gusty winds up to 20 mph are possible as it develops and moves westward. Timing will vary by day, with a bit of a delay expected to its inland progression on Wednesday and Thursday. This delay will allow afternoon temperatures to climb well into the 90s, and Leesburg may approach a daily record Wednesday afternoon. Rain chances of 20 to 30 percent or less are forecast to remain confined to far southern locations around Lake Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. The early week surface front that stalls across the area may lift back north late Thursday into Friday before pushing south of the area again by Friday night. Increasing PW around 1.5", a nearby boundary, and inland-moving sea breeze may provide for scattered showers and a storm or two Friday afternoon across a broader portion of ECFL. However, confidence remains low in this ECM/NBM- driven solution, so have kept PoPs around 35 percent or less. Due to an earlier sea breeze, coastal locations could only reach the upper 80s Friday afternoon, with the mid 90s expected inland. Saturday-Monday...Medium-range solutions quickly diverge heading into the weekend with regard to available moisture and associated afternoon rain chances. It does appear some drier air will be present with daytime highs cooler in the mid 80s to low 90s. This will give us a bit of a break from the recent pattern of 100+ degree heat indices, but appreciable rainfall looks unlikely with broad surface high pressure extending south from the eastern U.S. Overnight lows will fall into the mid 60s to around 70 degrees. && .MARINE... Issued at 355 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Now-Tonight...Isolated showers and lightning storms will continue into tonight while gradually shifting south and increasingly offshore. Outside of storms, light ESE winds will gradually veer south to southwest later tonight. Seas around 2 ft, except where locally higher around lightning storms. Wednesday-Sunday...Generally favorable conditions are expected through late week as a weak surface boundary remains near or across the local waters. Daily rain chances will persist (mainly south of Sebastian Inlet Wed-Thu), expanding slightly in coverage Friday, before becoming focused farther south this weekend as high pressure builds. Seas 2-3 ft through Friday, building to 4-5 ft offshore this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 92 70 90 71 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 97 72 96 72 / 10 0 10 0 MLB 92 72 90 73 / 10 0 10 10 VRB 93 71 91 71 / 20 0 10 10 LEE 96 71 95 72 / 0 0 10 0 SFB 97 71 95 71 / 10 0 10 0 ORL 97 73 96 73 / 10 0 10 0 FPR 93 70 91 70 / 20 0 10 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ AVIATION...Kelly