960
FXUS62 KMLB 021750
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
150 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 149 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Dense cu layer has developed across the entire area this afternoon
with a eastward-moving cirrus deck over northern terminals. Isolated
showers have developed on the northern and eastern shores of Lake
Okeechobee towards KFPR/KSUA, which will be the focus for any
organized activity through the afternoon. Confidence is not high
enough to include any TEMPO groups with this package, but may need
addition beyond 20Z for VRB/FPR/SUA. Activity along the west coast
sea breeze will push inland over the next few hours, but including
only vicinity mentions for interior terminals. East winds up of 10-
15 knots gusting above 20 knots at coastal sites through 00Z, with
winds diminishing overnight.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1006 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

High pressure settles in over the western Atlantic today, with
onshore flow aiding a few showers moving onshore along the
Treasure Coast this morning. Winds will be lighter today than
yesterday, but the sea breeze is still forecast to lead to breezy
conditions this afternoon, especially along the coast, with wind
gusts of 20-25mph. Westerly flow aloft will advect in some higher
moisture into the mid and upper levels, allowing for isolated to
scattered PoPs today. The highest chances (40-50%) will be south
of Orlando, especially over the interior. To the north, PoPs
20-30%, with the Volusia County coast likely to remain the driest.
CAMs continue to suggest development well past sunset, with
activity moving offshore from the Treasure and southern Brevard
coasts overnight tonight. Thus, have maintained PoPs around 40-50%
for this area past sunset. Main threats with any storms will be
gusty winds and lightning strikes.

A warming trend will begin today, with high temperatures creeping
up a few degrees from Saturday. Forecast highs are in the mid to
upper 80s along the coast and upper 80s to lower 90s inland.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 507 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

High pressure offshore the Carolina coast this morning will
continue seaward over the western Atlantic. A trailing ridge axis
will extend westward across north Florida into midweek,
maintaining the onshore flow. The ridge axis is forecast to then
slip south across the waters late week. Conditions will be less
than ideal today for small craft but conditions will become more
favorable Monday and continue much of the upcoming week.

ESE winds starting out near 15 knots this morning and choppy seas
4 to 5 feet will gradually improve through the afternoon. The
onshore flow will decrease 7-10 knots tonight with slight
enhancement of 12-14 knots each aftn near the coast behind the
sea breeze. Seas generally 2-3 FT Tue-Thu.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  87  71  88 /  20  30  10  20
MCO  71  90  71  92 /  20  40  10  20
MLB  73  87  73  88 /  30  40  20  20
VRB  71  88  71  89 /  40  40  20  30
LEE  72  91  71  93 /  10  50  20  20
SFB  71  90  71  92 /  20  40  10  20
ORL  72  91  72  92 /  20  40  10  20
FPR  71  87  70  88 /  40  40  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Leahy
AVIATION...Schaper