192
FXUS62 KMLB 221811
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
211 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 144 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

VFR conditions through the TAF period. ENE winds 5-10 KT will
become E/NE at 10-13 KT in the afternoon with gusts up to 20 KT
possible. Isolated showers will be possible this afternoon across
the south. Have kept VCSH for SUA starting at 19Z and going
through 00Z. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions expected. Winds
will then become ESE around 5 KT this evening before becoming
E/ESE and increasing to 5-10 KT by mid- morning. No mentionable
rain chances on Thursday.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 919 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

There is just enough low level moisture with the onshore flow to
allow a few showers to develop and push onshore, mainly along the
Treasure Coast. A slight chance for showers will persist through
this morning across this region. However, as sea breeze forms
late this morning and begins to shift inland, this activity will
diminish. 10Z sounding from the CAPE already shows limited
overall moisture in place, with PW value of 1.3 inches, and
GOES-16 PW imagery shows even drier air (PW values around 1 inch)
beginning to push into the area from the east this morning. This
drier air combined with ridge building in aloft, should maintain
dry conditions across east central Florida into the afternoon. MOS
and CAM guidance are in pretty good agreement with this as well.
Skies will be mostly to partly sunny, with highs near to slightly
above normal in the mid/upper 80s along the coast and upper
80s/low 90s across the interior.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 349 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

Today-Tonight...Seas up to 4 ft in the Gulf Stream gradually
subside, becoming widely 2-3 ft by sunset. Onshore flow persists,
increasing to around 10 kts this afternoon. Locally higher winds
will be possible near the coast as a sea breeze develops and moves
inland. Mostly dry with shower activity limited to the Treasure
Coast waters.

Thursday-Sunday...High pressure builds across the local waters,
promoting favorable boating conditions through the period. Onshore
winds veer south-southwest into Friday, backing along the coast each
afternoon as the sea breeze develops. Light winds around 5-10 kts
Thursday increase to 10-15 kts into the weekend. Isolated showers
and lightning storms will be possible across the Treasure Coast
waters Thursday and Friday with coverage expanding to the Brevard
waters Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  69  87  69  91 /   0   0   0  10
MCO  68  92  71  95 /   0   0   0  10
MLB  72  87  72  90 /   0   0   0  10
VRB  70  88  69  91 /   0   0   0  10
LEE  70  93  72  93 /   0   0   0  10
SFB  68  92  70  95 /   0   0   0  10
ORL  70  92  72  95 /   0   0   0  10
FPR  68  88  69  91 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Weitlich
AVIATION...Watson