667
FXUS62 KMLB 211727
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
127 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

VFR conditions prevailing. A few showers have developed along the
inland-moving east coast sea breeze early this afternoon. Low
confidence in an increase in coverage or any lightning, so have
maintained a VCSH mention for terminals from MCO/ISM/TIX
northward. Otherwise, dry conditions are forecast. Any convective
activity will diminish into this evening. Easterly flow through
the period will increase to around 10-15kts behind the sea breeze,
with lighter winds overnight.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1025 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

A light to moderate low level NE flow will exist across the area
today, between high pressure to the north of the state and low
pressure well offshore over the west Atlantic. There is limited
moisture in place across the area, with morning soundings and
GOES-16 PW imagery showing PW values around 1-1.2" across central
FL. However, model guidance does show a modest increase in these
values to around 1.4-1.5" through the day with the onshore flow.
Mid-level trough axis extended across the area may allow for some
enhanced lift with the inland moving east coast sea breeze to
produce scattered showers and isolated storms. However, CAM
guidance showing less than impressive convective coverage today.
Therefore, lowered rain chances today, and are no more that 30-40
percent, mainly across the interior and northern coast, while for
coastal locations from Melbourne south, PoPs are only around 20
percent. Skies will be mostly to partly sunny, with highs in the
80s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Today-Tonight...Low pressure situated far offshore will support
northeast winds around 5-10 kts. Small craft should exercise
caution across the offshore Volusia and offshore Brevard waters
before sunrise for seas up to 6 ft in the Gulf Stream. Seas
gradually subside through the day, becoming widely 3-4 ft late
tonight. Scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning
storms are forecast.

Wednesday-Saturday...Seas of 2-3 ft are forecast through late week,
promoting favorable boating conditions. Onshore winds around 5-10
kts veer south into Friday. Mostly dry with the best chance for a
shower or storm limited to the Treasure Coast waters. Isolated to
scattered showers then return across all waters on Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  85  70  88 /  10   0   0   0
MCO  71  90  70  93 /  10  10   0  10
MLB  73  85  72  87 /  10  10   0  10
VRB  71  88  70  88 /  20  10   0  10
LEE  71  90  72  93 /  10  10   0  10
SFB  70  90  69  92 /  10  10   0  10
ORL  71  90  70  93 /  10  10   0  10
FPR  70  87  69  88 /  20  20   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Weitlich
AVIATION...Leahy