Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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434 FXUS62 KMLB 251456 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1056 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 ...New UPDATE, MARINE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1053 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Forecast remains on track for a stormy afternoon for some, and a hot day for everyone. SPC has expanded the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms west a bit, now including all of Okeechobee and southern Osceola counties to the Kissimmee River. Strong to marginally severe winds remain the primary threat due to the potential for dry air entrainment to enhance downdrafts (DCAPE values 1,000-1,500 J/kg), producing gusts 40-50 mph and possibly locally damaging gusts over 60 mph. There could be a very localized threat for hail up to 1", with mesoscale guidance periodically analyzing SHIP bull`s eyes up to 1.0 along the sea breeze from Melbourne south, but increasing mid-level temperatures will keep this hazard fairly limited. There should be enough low-level westerly flow to help storms move along and offshore, but can`t rule out some near stationary back builders, which combined with heavy rainfall as PWATs approach 1.6", could lead to some localized minor flooding. All storms will be capable of occasional to frequent cloud to ground lightning. As for the rest of the forecast, hot. Southwesterly to westerly flow will push temperatures inland into the M-U90s, and hold off the east coast sea breeze long enough for the coastal corridor to reach the U80-L90s by around 2 PM, which then drop back a bit once the sea breeze pushes inland. For what it`s worth, all climate sites are forecast 3-5 degrees short of their high temperature records, so not quite record breaking heat, but still plenty hot enough folks should be mindful of how long they`ve been in the sun, drink plenty of water, and take breaks in the shade. && .MARINE... Issued at 1053 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Rest of Today-Tonight...Favorable winds and seas, but isolated to scattered offshore moving lightning storms are expected to push offshore in the late afternoon and evening, then work eastward across the waters through the early overnight. Some of these storms could become strong, capable of gusty winds over 35 kts and locally higher seas. The ridge axis of weak, broad high pressure will remain south of the local Atlantic waters, producing light SW-WSW winds this morning that back to SE-ESE at around 10 kts in the afternoon after the sea breeze develops, returning to light SW-WSW late tonight. Seas 1-3 ft. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 734 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Light SW-W winds today will favor the WCSB and slow the ECSB, resulting in a collision near MCO/ISM around 21Z. Coastal terminals turn onshore at around 10 kts around 17Z, KSFB around 19Z, while MCO/KISM/KLEE remain W 5-10 kts. ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA INVOF the sea breeze collision starting around 19Z. Higher confidence of SCT coverage from KMLB south, so have shipped TEMPOs for TSRA impacts at KMLB-KSUA, but keeping terminals to the north at VCTS with this package. TSRA/SHRA clear by 00Z-02Z, then VFR conditions with light and VRB winds prevail overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 350 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Warm temperatures across the Florida peninsula will persist this weekend into the beginning of next week, leading to sensitive fire weather concerns. Across the interior, minimum RH values between 35 to 45 percent are forecast each afternoon through at least Thursday. Winds are forecast to remain below 15 mph through the period. Lightning storm development will be possible today and again Tuesday through Thursday along the sea breeze. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 92 71 93 72 / 20 10 10 0 MCO 95 72 97 73 / 30 10 20 0 MLB 90 73 90 74 / 30 20 20 10 VRB 91 71 92 73 / 40 20 20 10 LEE 94 73 95 74 / 20 10 10 0 SFB 95 72 95 74 / 30 10 10 0 ORL 95 73 96 75 / 30 10 20 0 FPR 92 71 93 72 / 40 20 20 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Haley AVIATION...Leahy