Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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624 FXUS62 KMLB 300624 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 224 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024 ...New AVIATION, PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 222 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024 VFR and dry conditions are forecast. Light and variable winds this morning will increase into the afternoon hours from the east- northeast at 10-12kts. VCTS/TEMPO groups have been kept out of the TAFs with the greatest chance for showers/storms this afternoon expected across the interior to the west-southwest of the Treasure Coast terminals. && .UPDATE... Issued at 935 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024 Key Messages: - Hot temperatures continue Thursday, with mid 90s over the interior. - A few storms are possible for South Central Florida (south of Orlando) on Thursday. Slightly better coverage (20-40%) of showers/storms Friday in all areas. - Onshore breezes will lessen heat impacts this weekend, and drier air will once again limit rain potential. Well, we just keep adding to the margins of what will likely be a record hot month of May at multiple locations. The heat wave rolled on today, with Central Florida baking under abundant sunshine. Widespread mid 90s were attained with even a record for the date at Leesburg (96F). We had a few downpours over Martin County this afternoon, but all activity has since relocated down into SoFlo. Overnight, expect mainly clear skies with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Some ground fog may form over the interior. Northeast flow in the boundary layer picks up on Thursday, so we expect the Atlantic breeze to be dominant. Moisture is lacking, with 0-3 KM mixing ratios <10 g/kg. 1-3 KM RH values creep over 60% south of Greater Orlando, so it looks like Osceola/Okeechobee Co`s (and perhaps interior portions of the Treasure Coast corridor) stand the best chance for a storm in the afternoon/early evening. Brief gusty winds and heavy rain are possible, but don`t hold your breath for a widespread soaking, as coverage should peak at 20-30% in these areas. For the rest of us, the lack of moisture and/or low-level convergence will likely keep a lid on rain potential yet again. It will be hot again tomorrow, particularly over the interior. Our mixing scheme has been quite impressive of late, with 1000-700 hPa thicknesses mixing well beyond the surface pressure. No doubt, the high sun angle, drier air just off the deck, and soil conditions are all playing into this. That said, thicknesses do start to trend down on Thursday (slightly). So, take 2-3 degrees off of what you saw today. That leaves us with upper 80s/low 90s at the coast and low/mid 90s elsewhere. This is just the beginning of a multi-day downward trend in temperatures that will reach its nadir this weekend. && .MARINE... Issued at 935 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024 Tonight-Thu... (Modified Previous Discussion) Generally favorable boating conditions prevail through mid-week. On Thu, only a 10% shower chance in the afternoon for the Treasure Coast waters. NWRLY winds early in the morning will veer northeast/east into the afternoon, as the sea breeze develops. Winds remaining under 15 kts. Seas 1-2 ft. Fri-Mon...Boating conditions will deteriorate slightly into this weekend, as high pressure building into the western Atlantic increases onshore winds to around 15 kts or even 15-20 kts at times. PoPs remain 30% or less through the period. Seas 1-3 ft Fri will build to up to 4-5 ft this weekend, as winds increase. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024 Thu-This Weekend...Similar conditions will persist into Thu, with min RH once again forecast between 25-35% west of I-95 and 40-50% along the coast. Onshore winds are expected to increase to around 10 mph in the afternoon, with Very Good to Excellent dispersion and high temperatures in the 90s. Have added a 20-30pct chance for showers and storms across the interior/Lake Okeechobee region for the afternoon. Will begin to see some improvement in min RH late week into this weekend. However, min RH values will remain near-critical over the interior. Very sensitive fire weather conditions will persist, as onshore winds are forecast to increase to around 15 mph and precipitation chances remain low. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 89 71 88 71 / 10 0 10 0 MCO 94 71 93 71 / 20 0 20 10 MLB 90 74 88 74 / 20 10 10 10 VRB 91 72 89 72 / 20 10 10 10 LEE 94 72 93 71 / 10 0 30 10 SFB 94 71 92 70 / 10 0 20 10 ORL 95 73 93 71 / 10 0 20 10 FPR 91 71 89 71 / 20 10 20 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ AVIATION...Fehling