Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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930 FXUS62 KMLB 281957 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 357 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 355 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Now-Tonight...Scattered shower and isolated lightning storm activity continues this afternoon, which so far has been focused from Melbourne northward. However, activity is beginning to take shape across Okeechobee County and will likely evolve toward the Treasure Coast counties late this afternoon and evening. Where the most organized storms are occurring, wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph have been observed, along with heavy downpours and occasional lightning strikes. A brief cool down is provided by convection as well, with some locations dropping into the mid 70s to low 80s. Chance to low-end likely PoPs continue south through the evening, eventually translating offshore by midnight. The strongest activity may produce wind gusts to 50 mph, occasional lightning strikes, and localized heavy rainfall. Wednesday-Friday...Drier air filters south across the area on Wednesday as surface flow veers to the north-northeast. The east coast sea breeze will stay active through the remainder of the week, pushing farther inland each afternoon. Gusty winds up to 20 mph are possible as it develops and moves westward. Timing will vary by day, with a bit of a delay expected to its inland progression on Wednesday and Thursday. This delay will allow afternoon temperatures to climb well into the 90s, and Leesburg may approach a daily record Wednesday afternoon. Rain chances of 20 to 30 percent or less are forecast to remain confined to far southern locations around Lake Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. The early week surface front that stalls across the area may lift back north late Thursday into Friday before pushing south of the area again by Friday night. Increasing PW around 1.5", a nearby boundary, and inland-moving sea breeze may provide for scattered showers and a storm or two Friday afternoon across a broader portion of ECFL. However, confidence remains low in this ECM/NBM- driven solution, so have kept PoPs around 35 percent or less. Due to an earlier sea breeze, coastal locations could only reach the upper 80s Friday afternoon, with the mid 90s expected inland. Saturday-Monday...Medium-range solutions quickly diverge heading into the weekend with regard to available moisture and associated afternoon rain chances. It does appear some drier air will be present with daytime highs cooler in the mid 80s to low 90s. This will give us a bit of a break from the recent pattern of 100+ degree heat indices, but appreciable rainfall looks unlikely with broad surface high pressure extending south from the eastern U.S. Overnight lows will fall into the mid 60s to around 70 degrees. && .MARINE... Issued at 355 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Now-Tonight...Isolated showers and lightning storms will continue into tonight while gradually shifting south and increasingly offshore. Outside of storms, light ESE winds will gradually veer south to southwest later tonight. Seas around 2 ft, except where locally higher around lightning storms. Wednesday-Sunday...Generally favorable conditions are expected through late week as a weak surface boundary remains near or across the local waters. Daily rain chances will persist (mainly south of Sebastian Inlet Wed-Thu), expanding slightly in coverage Friday, before becoming focused farther south this weekend as high pressure builds. Seas 2-3 ft through Friday, building to 4-5 ft offshore this weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 355 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Wednesday-Thursday...Low relative humidity values mid week, in addition to dry and hot conditions, will lead to fire sensitive to critical conditions each afternoon. Additionally, temperatures will reach the mid to upper 90s, especially inland, sending heat indices into the low 100s. Late Week-This Weekend...Continued fire sensitive conditions are forecast with relative humidity values recovering some into the 30s and 40s. Temperatures back down into the upper 80s to low 90s this weekend, though mostly dry conditions are expected to persist. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 126 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Ongoing SHRA/TSRA INVOF the I-4 terminals expected to push east/southeast by 20Z. This activity is forecast to reach KTIX- KSUA between between 18Z to the north and 19-20Z to the south, but still somewhat low confidence in timing and could arrive a little on the early side. KTIX-KSUA clearing for the most part by 00Z, but SHRA could linger until 03Z. Main TSRA impacts MVFR-IFR VIS reductions, ceilings have stayed well above 030 so far. VFR conditions prevail late this evening after SHRA/TSRA dissipates or pushes offshore. Mostly dry conditions Wednesday. Winds this afternoon Wrly 5-10 kts, turning E-SE at the coastal terminals behind the sea breeze, become light and VRB overnight, then wake up Wednesday morning at Nrly 5-10 kts, becoming NE-ENE in the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 72 91 70 90 / 20 0 0 10 MCO 74 96 71 94 / 10 10 0 10 MLB 74 91 73 90 / 30 10 0 10 VRB 72 92 71 91 / 40 10 0 10 LEE 73 95 71 95 / 0 10 0 10 SFB 73 96 71 95 / 10 10 0 10 ORL 75 96 73 95 / 10 10 0 10 FPR 72 92 71 91 / 40 20 0 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Schaper AVIATION...Haley