334
FXUS62 KMLB 300736 CCA
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
338 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

...New AVIATION, PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 338 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Mostly VFR and dry conditions are forecast. TEMPO groups for patchy
ground fog have been added this morning at FPR/VRB. Light and
variable winds will increase into the afternoon hours from the ENE
at 10-12kts. VCTS/TEMPO groups have been kept out of the TAFs with
the greatest chance for showers/storms this afternoon expected
across the interior to the WSW of the Treasure Coast terminals.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 935 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Key Messages:

- Hot temperatures continue Thursday, with mid 90s over the
  interior.

- A few storms are possible for South Central Florida (south of
  Orlando) on Thursday. Slightly better coverage (20-40%) of
  showers/storms Friday in all areas.

- Onshore breezes will lessen heat impacts this weekend, and drier
  air will once again limit rain potential.

Well, we just keep adding to the margins of what will likely be a
record hot month of May at multiple locations. The heat wave
rolled on today, with Central Florida baking under abundant
sunshine. Widespread mid 90s were attained with even a record for
the date at Leesburg (96F). We had a few downpours over Martin
County this afternoon, but all activity has since relocated down
into SoFlo. Overnight, expect mainly clear skies with lows in the
upper 60s to mid 70s. Some ground fog may form over the interior.

Northeast flow in the boundary layer picks up on Thursday, so we
expect the Atlantic breeze to be dominant. Moisture is lacking,
with 0-3 KM mixing ratios <10 g/kg. 1-3 KM RH values creep over
60% south of Greater Orlando, so it looks like Osceola/Okeechobee
Co`s (and perhaps interior portions of the Treasure Coast
corridor) stand the best chance for a storm in the afternoon/early
evening. Brief gusty winds and heavy rain are possible, but don`t
hold your breath for a widespread soaking, as coverage should
peak at 20-30% in these areas. For the rest of us, the lack of
moisture and/or low-level convergence will likely keep a lid on
rain potential yet again.

It will be hot again tomorrow, particularly over the interior.
Our mixing scheme has been quite impressive of late, with
1000-700 hPa thicknesses mixing well beyond the surface pressure.
No doubt, the high sun angle, drier air just off the deck, and
soil conditions are all playing into this. That said, thicknesses
do start to trend down on Thursday (slightly). So, take 2-3
degrees off of what you saw today. That leaves us with upper
80s/low 90s at the coast and low/mid 90s elsewhere. This is just
the beginning of a multi-day downward trend in temperatures that
will reach its nadir this weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 935 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Tonight-Thu... (Modified Previous Discussion) Generally favorable
boating conditions prevail through mid-week. On Thu, only a 10%
shower chance in the afternoon for the Treasure Coast waters.
NWRLY winds early in the morning will veer northeast/east into the
afternoon, as the sea breeze develops. Winds remaining under 15
kts. Seas 1-2 ft.

Fri-Mon...Boating conditions will deteriorate slightly into this
weekend, as high pressure building into the western Atlantic
increases onshore winds to around 15 kts or even 15-20 kts at times.
PoPs remain 30% or less through the period. Seas 1-3 ft Fri will
build to up to 4-5 ft this weekend, as winds increase.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Thu-This Weekend...Similar conditions will persist into Thu, with
min RH once again forecast between 25-35% west of I-95 and 40-50%
along the coast. Onshore winds are expected to increase to around
10 mph in the afternoon, with Very Good to Excellent dispersion
and high temperatures in the 90s. Have added a 20-30pct chance for
showers and storms across the interior/Lake Okeechobee region for
the afternoon.

Will begin to see some improvement in min RH late week into this
weekend. However, min RH values will remain near-critical over the
interior. Very sensitive fire weather conditions will persist, as
onshore winds are forecast to increase to around 15 mph and
precipitation chances remain low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  71  88  71 /  10   0  10   0
MCO  94  71  93  71 /  20   0  20  10
MLB  90  74  88  74 /  20  10  10  10
VRB  91  72  89  72 /  20  10  10  10
LEE  94  72  93  71 /  10   0  30  10
SFB  94  71  92  70 /  10   0  20  10
ORL  95  73  93  71 /  10   0  20  10
FPR  91  71  89  71 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Fehling