808
FXUS62 KMLB 241123
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
723 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 630 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

VFR conditions are forecast to continue at all east central
Florida terminals through the period. Light and variable winds
early this morning will become onshore around 10 knots as the east
coast sea breeze develops and moves inland. Winds will then become
light and variable tonight after 00Z. Dry weather is expected to
continue across the terminals, though a stray shower or two cannot
be ruled out across the interior terminals due to the sea breeze
collision. Confidence in this continue to remain low, so left it
out once again with this forecast package. Will continue to
monitor and amend as needed.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

...Primary weather concern heading into the holiday weekend will be
the heat, as hotter than normal conditions are expected, with highs
well into the 90s...

...Overall drier than normal conditions expected each day through
Monday, but isolated afternoon showers and storms may still be
possible, mainly inland on Saturday...

Current...Continued dry across the area early this morning as deep
layer moisture values range from near 1 inch up to around 1.20
inches (below normal). Weak high pressure ridging exists across the
region. A light onshore flow will promote morning lows well into the
60s and L70s. Skies mostly clear across ECFL. Not expecting much in
the way of fog development, but smoke from any lingering active or
smoldering brush fires will still be able to cause visibility
concerns along area roadways.

Today-Tonight...Mid-level troughing will finally lift northeastward
from the western Atlc/Bahamas with mid-level ridging still centered
in the SW GoMex extending into the FL peninsula. Mid-level winds
will be out of the NW with some shortwave energy traversing north FL
late in the period. At the surface, weak high pressure ridging
across the western Atlc will continue to drift south/east away from
ECFL, though there will be a secondary weak high center just off
of the WCFL coast. This will continue to promote a fairly weak
pressure gradient across ECFL. Initial light/variable morning
winds will become of an ERLY component as the sea breeze develops
along the coast and ventures inland during the afternoon/early
evening. PWAT values will recover a bit to between 1.40-1.60
inches thru late day. Continue with the mostly dry forecast and
will leave out any mention in the grids/zones. There will be an
eventual sea breeze collision this evening along the Kissimmee
River or just westward up thru Lake County. Temperatures continue
to trend upward, with highs in the U80s for the immediate coast
and L-M90s into the interior. A few U90s cannot be ruled out
across Okeechobee County north along the Kissimmee River. Peak
heat index values will range from the upper 90s to low 100s.
Overnight lows remain consistent with conditions humid, and values
well in the U60s to L70s.

Sat-Thu...Much of this period continues to be highlighted by
increasing temperatures. Mid-level ridging will extend across the
GoMex to across the FL peninsula into early next week as any decent
shortwave energy remains north of the area, except the GFS hints at
some impulses breaching the northeast periphery and sliding down the
eastern FL peninsula on Sat. Some additional weak energy aloft does
push south across the area by late Tue thru mid next week. At the
surface, a rather weak pressure gradient remains in place thru the
holiday weekend. Medium range models hint at a potential frontal
boundary getting forced south into the area late Tue/Wed, stalling
across south-central FL on Thu. Tue-Thu will also have the highest
PoP chances over the extended, generally 20-40pct, but nothing
widespread in nature. Otherwise, drier than normal conditions will
largely continue into the holiday weekend, with only a slight chance
(20pct) for showers and lightning storms currently forecast for Sat,
mainly across the interior. However some CAMs are suggesting a
little higher coverage for late in the day, so stay tuned!

Highs mostly in the 90s areawide each day with maxes in the M-U90s
for many inland areas at least thru Tue and/or Wed. Heat indices in
the L-M100s each day thru at least Tue, with some U100s possible Sun-
Tue, generally south of Orlando and Melbourne, which would flirt
with Heat Advisory criteria. Conditions will be humid overnight,
with values 70-75F on average for most. Take extra precaution if
participating in outdoor activities this Memorial Day weekend. Take
frequent breaks in shaded or air conditioned areas and stay
hydrated. Know the signs of heat related illness!

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 223 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Today-Tonight...The pressure gradient will remain weak with
light/variable morning winds becoming onshore by late
morning/early afternoon, esp at the coast. Winds will become
light SSW again by late evening or overnight. Seas 2-3 ft. Mostly
dry conditions.

Sat-Tue...Continued favorable boating conditions, though it will be
increasingly hot and any shower/lightning storm chances will only be
ISOLD to WDLY SCT - most likely across the Gulf Stream. Winds again
become onshore each late morning and afternoon with daily sea breeze
regime (10-15 kts along the coast), but will veer a light offshore
component or become light/variable each overnight period. Seas
mostly AOB 3 ft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  70  93  71 /   0   0  10  10
MCO  94  72  96  74 /  10   0  20   0
MLB  88  72  91  74 /   0   0  20  10
VRB  89  71  93  72 /   0   0  10  10
LEE  94  73  94  73 /  10   0  10   0
SFB  94  72  96  73 /  10   0  10  10
ORL  94  73  96  74 /  10   0  20  10
FPR  89  70  94  71 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Tollefsen