252
FXUS62 KMLB 240027
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
827 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

...New AVIATION, PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 825 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

VFR and dry conditions are forecast through the TAF period with
high pressure in place over the state of Florida. Winds are
expected to become light and variable overnight before increasing
into Friday afternoon and evening from the east-southeast at
8-10kts with the exception of KLEE where winds will back westerly
into the late afternoon at 8kts.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

Key Messages...

-Main weather concern heading into the holiday weekend will be the
heat, as hotter than normal conditions are expected, with highs well
into the 90s.

-Overall drier than normal conditions expected each day through
Monday, but isolated afternoon showers and storms may still be
possible, mainly inland on Saturday.

Currently-Tonight...Dry conditions to prevail across east central
Florida for the rest of the afternoon into tonight, with sea breeze
pushing west of the area by sunset, and skies remaining mostly
clear. Lows tonight will fall into the upper 60s to low 70s. Winds
will again become light and variable overnight, but guidance still
not showing much in the way of fog development. However, settling of
smoke from any active or smoldering brush fires will still produce
a concern for visibility issues along any nearby area roadways.

Friday...Ridge axis of sfc high pressure over the west Atlantic
continues to shift southward and across the area into tomorrow. This
will allow winds to become southerly and remain light through the
morning, before the east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland,
switching winds to the east with speeds increasing to around 10 mph.
Moisture does increase across the area, with PW values reaching up
to 1.5-1.7 inches in the afternoon. Late day sea breeze collision
expected across the interior, near to just west of Orlando, and CAM
guidance does indicate some limited shower development where this
occurs toward sunset. However, mid-level ridge aloft will work to
suppress any convective development, and MOS guidance keeping
conditions dry, so will continue to keep rain chances below
mentionable levels for now. Warming trend continues into Friday,
with highs above normal in the upper 80s/low 90s along the coast and
mid 90s over much of the interior. Peak heat index values will range
from the upper 90s to low 100s. Overnight lows will be mild, falling
into the low to mid 70s.

Saturday-Wednesday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Much of this
period will be highlighted by increasing temperatures. Mid-level
ridging will extend across the GoMex to across the FL peninsula into
early next week as any decent shortwave energy remains north of the
area. Some weak energy aloft does finally push south across the area
by late Tue thru mid next week. At the surface, a rather weak
pressure gradient remains in place thru the weekend. Surface high
pressure does get nudged further south/east late in the weekend and
early next week with a potential frontal boundary getting forced
south into the area late Tue/Wed. These two days will also have the
deepest moisture across the area with the highest PoP chances over
the extended. Otherwise, drier than normal conditions will largely
continue into the holiday weekend, with only a slight chance (20%)
for showers and storms currently forecast for Saturday, mainly
across the interior. Chc (30-40pct) PoPs returning Tue-Wed.

Highs mostly in the 90s areawide each day with maxes in the M-U90s
for many inland areas at least thru Tue. Heat indices in the L-M100s
each day thru at least Tue, with some U100s possible Sun-Tue,
generally south of Orlando and Melbourne, which would flirt with
Heat Advisory criteria. Conditions will be humid overnight, with
values 70-75F on average for most. Take extra precaution if
participating in outdoor activities this Memorial Day weekend. Take
frequent breaks in shaded or air conditioned areas and stay
hydrated. Know the signs of heat related illness!

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 208 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

Tonight...High pressure ridge axis settles southward across the
waters into tonight, with easterly winds around 5-10 knots veering
to the south late tonight and diminishing to 5 knots or less. Seas
will range from 2-3 feet. Dry conditions continuing.

Thu-Sun...(Previous Discussion) Continued favorable boating
conditions, though it will be increasingly hot and any shower/storm
chances will only be ISOLD to WDLY SCT - most likely across the Gulf
Stream. Winds again become onshore each late morning and afternoon
with daily sea breeze regime (10-15 kts along the coast), but will
veer a light offshore component or become light/variable each
overnight period. Seas mostly AOB 3 ft.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 208 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

Friday-Monday...Sensitive fire weather conditions continue through
late week and into the weekend, mainly across the interior, as
temperatures become hotter than normal and mostly dry conditions
persist. Highs reach the mid 90s inland on Friday and Saturday,
and then in the mid to upper 90s on Sunday and Monday. Min RH
values will fall to the mid 30s to low 40s west of I-95 each
afternoon. Wind speeds, however, are forecast to remain below 15
mph through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  69  90  71  92 /   0  10  10  10
MCO  69  94  73  96 /   0  10  10  20
MLB  71  88  72  90 /   0   0   0  10
VRB  69  89  71  92 /   0   0   0  10
LEE  72  94  74  94 /   0  10  10  20
SFB  69  94  72  95 /   0  10  10  20
ORL  71  95  74  96 /   0  10  10  20
FPR  68  89  71  92 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Fehling