Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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447 FXUS62 KMLB 301848 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 248 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 248 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 ...Hot temperatures Continue this Afternoon, with Mid 90s over the interior... ...Onshore Breezes Will Lessen Heat Impacts this Weekend, and Drier Air Limits Rain Potential... Current-Tonight...Afternoon temps realizing in the U80s to L90s near the coast and generally M90s inland. Peak heat indices in the 90s, but will approach 100F toward Lake Okeechobee. A weak, hard to discern frontal boundary from yesterday lingers across south-central FL with moisture pooling along it. The moisture gradient will be fairly tight with highest PWATs from 1.70-2.00 inches south from near Melbourne. As such, greatest afternoon-early evening convection potential (20-30pct) will exist south of Orlando and southwest of Melbourne. Primary storm concerns will be lightning strikes, gusty winds, and locally heavy downpours. Some mid-level energy, cooler temps aloft (-8.0C to -10.0C), and the inland moving ECSB will aid in development. Activity that does develop will wind down by mid-evening. Otherwise mainly dry elsewhere and continued hot. Conditions remain warm/humid overnight with mins in the U60s to L70s and M-U70s for the barrier islands. Fri-Fri Night...Surface high pressure builds out of the Ohio Valley and toward the mid Atlc and SE coast. With lower pressures southward, this will create a tightening pressure gradient producing breezy/gusty NERLY winds, pushing a diffuse ECSB quickly inland with the collision occurring on the western half of the peninsula. The earlier onset of the sea breeze will finally provide a small amount of relief from the heat with highs in the u80s to near 90F along the coast and L-M90s inland. Rain chances 10-20pct across coastal counties and only up to a 30-40pct threat into the far interior (Kissimmee River and Lake County). Overnight mins remain persistent and in the U60s to L70s. Previous Extended Forecast Discussion Modified... Sat-Wed...High pressure ridge builds into the western Atlc and considerable dry air is forecast to move in from the east. Have a small PoP southward Sat/Sun, but confidence is low. The east coast sea breeze will remain dominant in prevailing onshore flow, increasing 15-20 mph this weekend, with higher gusts. Stronger onshore flow will help to keep high temperatures near normal, in the mid to upper 80s coast and near 90/lower 90s inland. The dry airmass will gradually modify next week with rain chances slowly increasing 20-30 percent Mon, 30-40 percent Tue/Wed. Temperatures will also begin a slow climb but not getting as hot as it has been. && .MARINE... Issued at 248 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 Remainder of Afternoon-Tonight...Any precip chances will remain across the Treasure Coast waters but percentages are low. Onshore flow this afternoon 10-12 kts becoming light/variable this evening and overnight. Seas continue 1-2 ft, perhaps up to 3 ft at times well offshore Cape northward. Previous Extended Marine Forecast Discussion... Fri-Mon...Boating conditions will deteriorate slightly into this weekend, as high pressure builds south down the eastern seaboard then shifts off the Carolina coast. Onshore winds increase 15 kts and even 15-20 kts at times Fri night/Sat. Slight rain chances, mainly over the Gulf Stream. Seas 2-3 ft Fri will build 3-5 ft Fri night-Sat, and 3-4 FT Sun-Mon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 248 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 Remainder of afternoon...Min RH values are forecast to reach between 25-30% north of I-4 corridor, especially Lake County while rising to 40-50% along the coast. Onshore afternoon (northeast to east) winds 10 to 15 mph, with Very Good to Excellent dispersion. There will be a small threat for ISOLD-WDLY SCT afternoon-early evening lightning storms mainly in Osceola and Okeechobee counties. Fri-Mon...Min RH values will hold around 35% Fri over the interior and this will persist through the weekend. Very sensitive fire weather conditions will continue, as onshore winds are forecast to increase to around 15 mph and gusty while rain chances remain very low. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 131 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 VFR conditions through the TAF period. Northeast winds this afternoon will increase to around 12 KT with gusts up to 20 KT possible, especially across the Treasure Coast. Few mid to high level clouds streaming overhead today. Winds will become light and variable tonight before becoming NE once again around 10 KT on Friday. Breezy conditions are expected to develop Friday afternoon, with winds increasing to 10-15 KT in the mid morning with gusts to around 20 KT possible, especially in the afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible Friday afternoon, especially across the interior. Have included VCTS for MCO starting at 18Z and will likely add VC wording for the other sites in later packages. TEMPOs may be added later depending on timing and coverage confidence. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 71 88 72 85 / 10 20 0 10 MCO 71 92 72 87 / 10 30 10 10 MLB 73 88 74 86 / 10 20 10 10 VRB 71 89 72 87 / 10 20 10 20 LEE 71 93 70 89 / 10 30 0 10 SFB 71 91 70 88 / 10 20 0 10 ORL 73 92 72 88 / 10 30 10 10 FPR 71 89 72 87 / 20 20 10 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Sedlock AVIATION...Watson