Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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318 FXUS62 KMLB 230024 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 824 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New AVIATION, PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 803 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 VFR and dry conditions are forecast through the TAF period with high pressure in place over the Southeastern US. East to northeast winds at 8-12kts will become light overnight, then increase from the east-southeast into Thursday afternoon at 10kts with gusts to around 15kts along the coast. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 350 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Key Messages... -Remaining mostly dry and becoming hotter than normal through late week. -Isolated afternoon showers and storms possible into the holiday weekend, but remaining drier than normal and hot, with highs well into the 90s. Currently-Tonight...Sea breeze continues to push inland and a few brief showers have developed near Lake Okeechobee where interactions with the lake breeze have occurred. However, this activity will be limited for the rest of the afternoon across this area. Otherwise, drier air evident in GOES-16 PW value imagery will continue to build in from the east keeping dry conditions in place through the rest of today into tonight. Skies will be mostly clear and overnight lows will range from the mid 60s to low 70s. Guidance not indicating much in the way of fog development for tonight across east central Florida. However, with lighter winds forecast, smoke from any lingering active or smoldering brush fires will still be able to cause visibility concerns along area roadways, especially near the large "Sandy Drain" wildfire. Thursday...Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic will remain extended across the region into tomorrow, with ridge aloft extended from the Gulf of Mexico and northeast across the state. This combined with a drier airmass (PW values at or just below an inch) across east central FL will keep rain chances out of the forecast for Thursday. Temperatures will continue to trend upward, with highs near to above normal in the mid to upper 80s along the coast and low to mid 90s over the interior. Friday-Tuesday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Warm and muggy conditions continue to build as moisture returns and a flattening 500mb ridge holds influence over the Florida peninsula. High temperatures further climb through the weekend and into early next week, reaching the mid 90s across the interior, and possibly into the upper 90s for some inland areas, especially on Sunday and Memorial Day. Along the coast, not much relief will be had by the sea breeze, with highs still forecast to reach the low to mid 90s. Heat index values between 97-102 on Friday, increase to 100-107 degrees early next week, nearing Heat Advisory criteria. Additionally, rain chances remain below normal, with only isolated showers and storms forecast each afternoon, so not much in the way of afternoon convection to provide any relief from the hotter conditions either. Take extra precaution if participating in outdoor activities this Memorial Day weekend. Take frequent breaks in shaded or air conditioned areas and stay hydrated. Know the signs of heat related illness! && .MARINE... Issued at 350 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Tonight...Easterly winds around 10 knots early this evening will diminish to around 5 knots or less late tonight. Seas will range from 2-3 feet. Mostly dry conditions expected over the waters overnight, but a few showers will be possible over the offshore waters of the Treasure Coast late tonight. Thursday-Sunday...(Modified Previous Discussion) High pressure builds across the local waters, promoting favorable boating conditions through the period. Onshore winds veer south-southwest into Friday, backing along the coast each afternoon as the sea breeze develops. Light winds around 5-10 kts Thursday increase to 10- 15 kts into the weekend. Remaining mostly dry across the waters through late week and then isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms will be possible across the coastal waters into the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 350 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Mid to Late Week...(Modified Previous Discussion) High pressure builds across east central Florida promoting drying conditions and warming temperatures. Fire sensitive conditions are forecast into late week as minimum relative humidity values fall as low as the low to mid 30s west of Orlando on Thursday afternoon, and in the upper 30s to low 40s across the interior on Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 69 87 69 91 / 0 0 0 10 MCO 69 92 71 95 / 0 0 0 10 MLB 71 87 72 90 / 0 0 0 10 VRB 70 88 69 91 / 0 0 0 10 LEE 70 93 72 93 / 0 0 0 10 SFB 69 92 70 95 / 0 0 0 10 ORL 70 92 72 95 / 0 0 0 10 FPR 69 88 69 91 / 0 10 0 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Weitlich AVIATION...Fehling