666
FXUS64 KMOB 040045
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
744 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS) Issued at XXXXXX

Showers and storms will end this evening with only an isolated
shower possible overnight. Otherwise generally VFR conditions
through the morning on Tuesday. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 415 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 415 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

We will see a continuation of a series of impulses/shortwave energy
moving in a west-northwest flow aloft to aid in the trigger for
mainly diurnal convection. The ongoing scattered convection will
dissipate through late evening with the loss of daytime surface
heating, but lingering showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm
are expected to remain over the marine waters past midnight. Low
temperatures tonight fall into the upper 60s and lower 70s most
spots with very light patchy fog development expected north of I-10
late tonight.

The next main shortwave over the central Great Plains has resulted
in an MCS that will advances southeast across Missouri and northern
Louisiana this evening and into western Mississippi around midnight.
At this time the CAMs are showing this system dissipating late me
tonight across central Mississippi. With high temperatures Tuesday
climbing into the mid to upper 80s and another round of impulses and
shortwave energy moving in from the northwest, isolated to scattered
showers and storms near the coast to start off the day will once
again spread inland. With the approach of another upper shortwave,
the CAMs are showing another MCS pushing across the ArkLaTex region
in the morning, and moving fairly quickly across Louisiana southern
Mississippi in the afternoon. At this time it looks like this system
will advance into the western half of our forecast area late in the
afternoon through the evening hours. It does appear deep layer shear
will be a bit stronger with this system, which could bolster a
better threat for strong to severe storms. /22

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 415 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Northwesterly flow will largely continue through early next week
as the local area remains in between an upper ridge to our west
and a digging upper trough over the Midwestern and Eastern
portions of the US. Surface high pressure will linger over the
western Atlantic and eastern Gulf through midweek before getting
pushed further south into the Gulf later in the week and into the
weekend. This pattern will result in an persistent onshore flow
through Thursday night with rich Gulf moisture ushering into the
local area during this time period. Daily chances for summertime
storms are expected through at least mid week with coverages
generally remaining isolated to scattered each afternoon. There is
still uncertainty with regards to timing, but guidance continues
to indicate a few subtle shortwaves sliding within the northwest
flow through the period which could help to enhance storm coverage
at times. One of the more notable shortwaves looks like it may
pivot into the region overnight Wednesday into early Thursday. As
we head later into the week, the upper trough continues to dig
over the eastern US and an associated surface low pressure will
send a late season cold front down into the local area. Guidance
continues to suggest that this front will approach the area and
likely push offshore sometime on Friday. Highest rain chances on
Friday will likely be in the afternoon hours as the front makes it
near the coast during peak heating. Guidance in trending towards
dry air moving in behind the front with PWATs falling to almost a
half inch briefly during the day on Saturday. If that`s the case,
then we`ll see dry conditions on Saturday. Moisture gradually
returns later in the weekend and into early next week with
isolated to scattered showers and storms returning during that
time. Temperatures will be hot this week with highs generally in
the upper 80s and lower 90s. /14

MARINE...
Issued at 415 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

No significant marine impacts expected throughout the week
as a light onshore flow prevails through midweek and then shifts
westerly late in the week. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      72  87  73  89  73  91  72  94 /  20  40  10  30  30  50  10  20
Pensacola   75  86  76  87  76  89  75  93 /  20  40  10  40  40  60  20  30
Destin      75  86  76  86  76  87  76  90 /  20  30  10  30  40  60  30  30
Evergreen   68  88  69  90  70  90  69  92 /  30  50  10  40  50  70  10  20
Waynesboro  69  88  71  91  70  90  70  91 /  40  50  10  40  50  40  10  10
Camden      67  88  69  90  69  88  68  88 /  40  50  10  40  50  50  10  10
Crestview   68  89  69  90  71  92  70  95 /  10  50   0  40  30  60  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob