690
FXUS64 KMOB 251710
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1210 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours at the
terminals, with mostly clear skies and southerly winds. A brief
period of MVFR cigs is possible early Sunday morning; however,
confidence is too low to add mention in this forecast cycle. /73

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 445 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 445 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

An upper level ridge remains just to our west, placing the area
in a west to northwest flow aloft. To our northwest, we are
watching another decaying MCS across north-central Mississippi.
The impacts with this system are expected to remain to our north
outside of the remaining high clouds this morning. This afternoon,
another shortwave in the flow will bring the potential of
isolated to scattered showers and storms to mainly northeast
portions of the region. MLCAPES of 2000-2500 J/kg and deep layer
shear values of 40 knots would support the potential of a few
stronger storms with gusty winds and large hail the main threat.
SPC has a Marginal Risk over portions of south central AL today to
cover this potential. The upper ridge will amplify over the area
on SUnday in response to a developing trough over the plains. This
will keep conditions dry and warm across the area on Sunday.
Highs will be in the upper 80s and low 90s inland to upper 80s
along the coast. Lows will range from the low to mid 70s. /13

SHORT & LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 445 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

The upper ridging quickly moves east Sunday night into Monday as a
trough amplifies over the eastern states through the early part
of the week. This will send a weak "cold" front into the area
Monday and moving toward the coast or just offshore Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Ahead of the front, we expect an increase in
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms on Memorial Day.
It`s certainly not looking like a washout, but there will likely
be some thunderstorms present. A few of these storms could become
strong as well with gusty winds. SPC has the area outlooked in a
Marginal Risk for this potential. The rain chances will linger
into Tuesday, especially along the coast, as the front hangs up
over the coastal counties. A much drier airmass is expected to
move into the area Thursday into Friday.

Despite the drier air with the front, it will not bring any cooler
weather with it for daytime highs as upper 80s to lower 90s will
be theme through the week. The drier airmass will allow low
temperatures to drop into the 60s across much of the area mid to
late week. 13/34

MARINE...
Issued at 445 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow is expected to
persist across the coastal waters through Monday. Winds will be
enhanced across inland bay and sounds each afternoon with the
seabreeze. A cold front approaches from the north on Monday and
will bring the potential for isolated to scattered showers and
storms Monday into Tuesday. A brief light offshore flow is
expected by Tuesday night into Wednesday as the front moves
offshore.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  89  75  90  72  93  68  91 /   0   0   0  30  10  20  10  10
Pensacola   75  86  77  87  75  90  71  88 /   0   0   0  20  10  20  10  10
Destin      76  85  77  86  76  87  72  86 /   0   0   0  20  10  20  10  10
Evergreen   71  91  71  91  68  92  64  90 /  10   0  10  40  20  20  10  10
Waynesboro  71  93  72  93  68  92  65  89 /  10   0  10  40  20  20  10  10
Camden      71  91  72  90  67  90  64  88 /  20   0  10  40  20  20  10  10
Crestview   71  91  70  91  69  93  65  92 /   0   0   0  30  10  20  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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