Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
844 FXUS64 KMOB 031743 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1243 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 ...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 VFR conditions will prevail expect for temporary reductions in ceiling and visibility this afternoon and early evening in and near isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Winds will remain generally out of the south to south-southeast at 5 to 10 knots. /22 && .NEAR TERM... (Now through Tuesday) Issued at 547 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 An uncertain yet potentially convectively active near term lies ahead today through Tuesday. Several weak shortwaves embedded within the northwest flow aloft are expected to transit the area during the period. The first of these is moving through this morning which has been responsible for an ongoing complex of thunderstorms pushing across southeastern LA into southeastern MS. CAMs have not handled this feature well at all, with a majority of them not even having any convection ongoing in this area right now. With that said, have opted to bump PoPs this morning across far southeastern MS into southwestern AL in anticipation that this feature transits the aforementioned area. As we head into the rest of today, more typical afternoon pulse- type convection can be expected by late morning into the afternoon and early evening hours. High temperatures rise into the upper 80`s to near 90 for most spots. As we head into tonight, the next shortwave will begin to approach the area sometime during the overnight hours. It seems reasonable to expect another MCS to be ongoing with this feature as it pushes across the ArkLaTex this evening, likely persisting into the overnight as it comes across LA/MS/AL. There is a lot of uncertainty in the evolution of this system so it`s difficult to get into any details on timing or intensity at this point. Lows tonight will fall into the lower 70`s for most spots. The uncertainty continues into Tuesday as another shortwave approaches from the west-northwest by late afternoon into early evening. Once again, potential exists for an MCS to track across the area, but details on timing and intensity are difficult to assess at this time. It does appear deep layer shear will be a bit stronger for the Tuesday system, which could bolster a better threat for strong to severe storms. At a minimum anticipate the usual late morning into afternoon/evening pulse type thunderstorms for the entire forecast area. Afternoon highs once again top out in the upper 80`s to near 90. A Moderate risk of rip currents today drops to a low risk for tonight into Tuesday. MM/25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 72 89 73 89 73 90 71 93 / 10 30 10 30 20 40 20 30 Pensacola 76 88 75 87 76 88 74 93 / 10 30 10 30 30 50 20 30 Destin 77 85 76 87 76 88 76 90 / 10 30 10 30 30 50 20 30 Evergreen 70 90 68 91 70 89 68 92 / 30 40 10 40 40 60 20 20 Waynesboro 70 90 70 92 70 90 68 92 / 30 40 10 40 40 40 20 20 Camden 70 90 69 90 69 88 68 89 / 30 40 10 40 40 50 20 20 Crestview 69 90 68 91 70 91 69 95 / 10 30 0 30 20 60 20 30 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob