Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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273 FXUS64 KMOB 171814 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 114 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 ...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 114 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop across the area throughout the afternoon. Gusty winds and hail will accompany strong to severe storms throughout the day. Ceilings will drop into the MVFR to IFR range in and around scattered storms. Outside of thunderstorms, conditions will remain gusty along the coast through early afternoon. /13 && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today) Issued at 114 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Currently watching and area of light to moderate rain moving across our interior area this afternoon to the north of a northward moving warm front. To the south of this boundary, the airmass has become rather unstable with MLCAPE values around 2000J/Kg and deep layer shear values around 40 to 50 knots. We will be closely monitoring these areas for any thunderstorms that can develop as they will have the potential to become severe with damaging winds and large hail. The tornado threat remains very low due to weak low level shear values. /13 SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 538 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 The area dries out late in the weekend through the middle of next week. Weak ridging aloft builds into the region as a trough remains draped across the western Atlantic. This pattern results in northerly to northwesterly flow aloft developing overhead through early Wednesday. A surface high draped down the East Coast eventually nudges into the region early next week and onshore flow becomes established by Tuesday. A shortwave sliding across the central portion of the CONUS will cause the ridge aloft to briefly flatten toward the Gulf by mid-week. The bulk of the showers and storms associated with this shortwave will likely remain to our north on Wednesday and Thursday, although we can`t rule out some isolated storms by Thursday afternoon. Beach Note: Rip current risk remains HIGH on Sunday and eventually falls to MODERATE late on Sunday night. The risk remains MODERATE on Monday. RCMOS probabilities indicate that the risk should fall to a low on Tuesday through Thursday. RCMOS guidance does indicate a very brief bump to MODERATE is possible Tuesday afternoon for the beaches in northwest Florida. 07/mb && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 68 82 67 88 66 90 69 87 / 80 80 20 10 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 72 80 70 86 69 88 72 85 / 60 90 30 10 0 0 0 0 Destin 73 80 71 85 71 85 72 84 / 50 80 40 20 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 68 82 65 87 64 89 64 89 / 80 90 30 10 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 66 84 64 86 63 90 66 91 / 70 70 10 10 0 0 0 0 Camden 67 82 64 85 63 88 64 89 / 70 80 30 20 0 0 0 0 Crestview 69 81 65 88 64 90 64 89 / 60 90 30 10 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for ALZ051>060-261>266. High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for ALZ265-266. FL...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for FLZ201>206. High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206. MS...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob