380
FXUS64 KMOB 222309
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
609 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Thursday with the
exception of some patchy late night fog. Winds become calm or
light and variable early this evening, then a southerly flow near
10 knots develops on Thursday. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 328 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Upper level ridging will shift slightly south out over the Gulf
tonight and Thursday, with nearly zonal flow aloft expected over our
area. Surface high pressure, centered in the Atlantic off the US
east coast will continue to ridge into the region from the east,
while a frontal boundary stalls well to our northwest. With this
pattern, a persistent, light south to southeast flow will continue,
with atmospheric moisture gradually increasing. Although moisture
will be increasing, high pressure will remain firm across our area,
so any weather associated with the frontal boundary will weaken as
well as remain to our west and northwest. There could be a very
isolated shower or storm associated with the late afternoon heating
and the sea breeze circulation near the coast, but chances are far
too low to include a PoP or QPF and the dry pattern with mostly
clear skies (with scattered to broken cumulus during the afternoon
hours) and above normal warmth will continue. Lows tonight will
range from the low/mid 60s inland to the lower 70s closer to the
coast, and mid 70s along the immediate beaches and barrier islands.
Temperatures will remain quite warm, with highs in the upper 80s to
around 90 inland and low to mid 80s near and along the coast. DS/12

LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Zonal to northwesterly flow aloft will remain in place through at
least Sunday as an upper ridge remains cemented over the
southwestern Gulf. A few shortwaves look to push along the
northern periphery of this ridge, however the best forcing is
expected to remain well to our north. Although this will likely
spark showers and storms outside of our area, any storms that
attempt to approach our region will likely dissipate due to the
presence of the ridge and a surface high building near the Florida
Peninsula. By the start of the week, an upper trough will push
into the eastern half of the US, helping to flatten the upper
ridge and shove it further south. Embedded shortwave impulses are
also expected to round the base of the trough as it slides east.
At the surface, the high will drift into the western Atlantic as a
late-season cold front begins to move into the region Monday
night into Tuesday. This front, along with the shortwave impulses
overhead, will allow for scattered showers and storms to return to
the forecast for Monday and Tuesday. Best rain chances (up to 40
percent) look to occur during the afternoon hours thanks to
diurnal heating. The front slips offshore sometime late Tuesday
and a much drier airmass filters in from the north for Tuesday
night and into Wednesday, with long-range deterministic models
suggesting dew points dropping into the 50s for most areas. Highs
through Monday will top out in the upper 80s along the coast and
the low to mid 90s elsewhere. Heat indices by the weekend could
approach the 97- 102 degree mark. The highest dew points could be
seen out ahead of the front on Monday, allowing for heat indices
to rise to around 100- 107 in many locations. Lows through Monday
will only fall into the upper 60s well inland to the mid 70s along
the coast. Temperatures return to seasonal norms by midweek after
the front moves through. A Low risk of rip currents continues
through Saturday, increasing to Moderate on Sunday. /96

MARINE...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

A mainly light onshore flow pattern will continue over the marine
area through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Seas
generally 2 feet or less. Winds will increase slightly over the
weekend with a slight building of seas over the Gulf waters as well.
No significant hazards to small craft are expected through the
weekend. DS/12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      68  87  72  89  72  90  73  90 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   71  85  74  86  74  88  76  87 /   0   0   0  10   0   0   0   0
Destin      73  84  74  84  76  86  77  86 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   66  89  68  91  70  93  70  91 /   0   0   0  10   0  10  10  10
Waynesboro  66  90  69  92  71  94  71  93 /  10  10   0   0  10  10   0  10
Camden      66  89  69  91  71  92  70  91 /   0  10   0  10  10  20  10  10
Crestview   65  89  67  90  70  92  70  90 /   0   0   0  10   0  10   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob