501
FXUS64 KMOB 221200
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
700 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 457 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 454 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Upper level ridging will remain in place over the area through
Thursday. The subsidence beneath the ridge will maintain a dry
pattern with mostly clear skies and above normal warmth. High
pressure over the western Atlantic will maintain a light
southeasterly flow. Temperatures will remain above normal with
highs in the upper 80s to around 90 inland and low to mid 80s near
the coast. Lows tonight will be in the low/mid 60s inland to
around 70 near the coast. /13

LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 454 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Dry and warm forecast expected through the holiday weekend with the
return of showers and storms at some point early next week.

Mid and upper level ridging begins to flatten into the Gulf as a
series of shortwaves slide across the northern periphery of the
ridge. A surface high over the western Atlantic maintains a firm
grip over the local area and eastern Gulf through the weekend. The
influence of deep layer ridging should keep rain chances minimal on
Saturday and Sunday with only a 15-20% POP in the afternoon and
early evening hours across our northernmost counties (generally
north of the Highway 84 corridor, further from the influence of the
ridging). An isolated storm or two may develop on the sea breeze
each afternoon Friday through Sunday, but confidence isn`t high
enough to bump up the POPs at this time.

Rain chances increase as we head into early next week as a potent
shortwave dives across the Plains. Scattered showers and storms are
possible by the afternoon hours on Memorial Day. Beyond Memorial
Day, there remain some differences in how the models resolve the
evolution of the shortwave and the eventual frontal passage, which
ultimately impact the rain chances by Tuesday.

Memorial Day weekend is shaping up to be toasty as heat indices soar
up to 100 with high temperatures rising into the mid to low 90s
across inland communities and upper 80s at the beaches. Overnight
lows only fall into the 70s.

Beach Note: Rip current risk remains LOW through Saturday and
increases to a MODERATE by Sunday. RCMOS probabilities are
indicating a high likelihood of the rip current risk increasing to a
HIGH RISK early on Memorial Day. 07/mb

MARINE...
Issued at 454 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and waves
near the coast due to the afternoon seabreeze. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      86  68  87  71  89  72  90  74 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   84  72  85  73  86  75  88  76 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      84  73  84  74  85  76  85  77 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   90  65  90  67  91  70  93  70 /   0   0   0   0  10   0  10  10
Waynesboro  90  66  90  69  93  70  94  72 /   0   0   0   0   0  10  10   0
Camden      89  66  90  68  91  70  92  71 /   0   0   0   0  10  10  10  10
Crestview   89  66  89  67  89  70  91  70 /   0   0   0   0  10   0  10   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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