680
FXUS64 KMOB 301814
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
113 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the period with the
exception of a few MVFR ceilings/vsbys in and near isolated to low
end scattered showers and thunderstorms that will affect western
portions (southeast MS, extreme southwest AL) both this afternoon
into early evening and then also on Friday afternoon. Confidence
was generally not high enough to include at the TAF sites this
cycle, but did indicate VCTS for BFM and MOB this afternoon. Light
to occasionally moderate (5 to 15 knot) southeasterly flow for
most locations this afternoon, becoming light and variable
tonight, and then light southeasterly again on Friday. DS/12

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

An area of rain and some embedded thunderstorms just to the west of
our area late this morning are moving east-southeast into our area.
In general, CAMS indicate that the thunderstorms will likely weaken
somewhat as the move into our area and interact with the ridging
that is in place, but a few strong storms could be possible over
portions of our area (especially interior southeast MS) this
afternoon.  Elsewhere into southwest AL there could be some rain,
and maybe a thunderstorm or two there as well this afternoon.
Currently have about a 20 percent POP over those locations, will
monitor radar trends and may have to bump those POPs up slightly
in those locations for the remainder of the afternoon.
Temperatures area generally in the low to mid 80s across the
region, with some locations probably climbing into the upper 80s
later today, especially over the southern half of the area.

A broad upper trough moves off the east coast tonight into Friday,
with weak upper ridging developing over our area. Upper troughing
over the northwestern CONUS this morning drifts east through Friday,
with a southern stream shortwave trough currently over the Four
Corners region becoming slightly more amplified and approaching the
Lower Mississippi River Valley by late Friday afternoon. As was the
case last evening, some of the activity from the showers/storms
currently just to the west of our area could linger into the
evening hours over the western portions of our forecast area, but
overall POPs tonight should be low. At the surface, high pressure
centered along the Mid-Atlantic states will continue to ridge down
into our area, maintaining the mainly east to southeasterly wind
flow across the region. This will keep a somewhat moist airmass in
place, with dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s across our
coastal counties and up into southeast MS (which will be more on
the western periphery of the surface ridge). With the southern
stream shortwave through approaching on Friday, combined with the
moisture (especially western zones), look for low end POPs
(generally around 20, possibly 30 percent), with isolated to
possibly scattered showers and storms in those areas again on
Friday. DS/12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      68  88  72  84  71  85  71  87 /  10  10  20  70  40  50  20  20
Pensacola   72  87  75  84  73  84  74  86 /   0  10  20  60  40  50  20  20
Destin      73  87  76  84  74  85  74  86 /   0  10  10  40  30  40  20  20
Evergreen   63  90  68  85  67  86  66  89 /  10  20  10  60  40  60  20  30
Waynesboro  64  90  69  84  68  85  68  90 /  20  20  20  80  50  70  20  30
Camden      64  89  69  84  67  85  67  88 /  20  20  10  70  50  60  30  30
Crestview   64  92  69  87  67  87  66  90 /   0  20  10  50  30  50  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob