Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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671 FXUS63 KMPX 240002 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 702 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers & thunderstorms expected overnight into tomorrow morning. A Marginal Risk of severe weather (mainly damaging wind) across southern Minnesota. - Cooler Memorial Day weekend with periodic chances for rain, mainly on Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 211 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Thunderstorms will become more widespread across the eastern Dakotas this evening ahead of an advancing cold front & surface low. The bulk of this activity is expected to remain along & north of a stationary boundary stretched across north-central Minnesota. A few isolated showers & thunderstorms can`t be ruled out across our area of central Minnesota, but strong/severe weather is not anticipated with dew points in the mid-40s. Quiet weather is expected this evening, but becomes more active overnight as a line of showers & thunderstorms along the cold front advances through Minnesota & Wisconsin after midnight & continues through tomorrow morning. Farther south along the front where surface-based instability is higher, a mesoscale convective complex is expected to develop tonight across eastern NE/SD, and continue eastwards through Iowa overnight. Most CAMs have the northern edge of this complex extending into at least far-southern Minnesota, so a threat for damaging winds will exist across these areas during the early morning hours. Surface-based instability sharply decreases farther north towards the Twin Cities metro & central Minnesota so less of threat for severe weather is expected tomorrow morning, but still can;t totally be ruled out. Rainfall amounts through tomorrow morning are generally expected to be between 0.25-05." across central MN & western Wisconsin, with amounts closer to 0.75-1" possible across southern Minnesota where thunderstorms are more likely. The morning showers & thunderstorms will be east of the area by mid-morning, and then the question becomes how far east will the surface front/boundaries by by the afternoon & whether any additional showers or thunderstorms can redevelop behind the morning convection. For now, chances for scattered afternoon showers & thunderstorms look highest across western Wisconsin, with perhaps more isolated convection farther east into the I-35 corridor & central Minnesota. Rainfall amounts with the afternoon precip will range from 0.5-1" across central Wisconsin where the coverage will be greatest, to maybe up to 0.1" from any isolated showers across eastern & central MN. Somewhat unsettled weather continues over the Memorial Day weekend as a deep trough over the western half of Canada ejects a number of shortwaves over the Upper Midwest. Periodic chances for showers & a few thunderstorms will accompany each of these waves, so we`ll carry a general 30-50% chance of rain through the weekend (although there will be more dry periods than wet periods). The best chance for a widespread & soaking rain comes Sunday with a more organized shortwave moving through the central plains & mid-Mississippi valley. This system will largely pass south of our area, but rainfall amounts of 0.5-1" could extend north into southern & central MN & western WI. Outside of Sunday, isolated to scattered showers are possible at times this weekend with coverage expected to be somewhat diurnally driven during the afternoon. Temperatures will be on the cooler end this weekend from the lower heights aloft & cloud cover/precipitation, with daytime highs generally in the 60s to low 70s. Looking ahead, ridging aloft builds into the central CONUS into the middle of next week, leading to warmer temperatures & at least a few days of dry weather. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 702 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 VFR this evening. Showers and thunderstorms will continue developing over the central Plains and advance northeast across the region overnight and early Friday morning. MVFR conditions are possible with the activity. A second round is likely to develop across eastern MN and WI early Friday afternoon ahead of a cold front. Winds will remain southeast tonight, then shift west behind the front Friday afternoon. KMSP...No concerns this evening. -TSRA chances increase between 11-13Z, then after a lull a second round is possible between 17-19Z. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind SW 10 kts. SUN...VFR. Chance -SHRA/MVFR. Wind E 10-20 kts. MON...VFR. Chance -SHRA/MVFR. Wind NW 10-20 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ETA AVIATION...Borghoff