940
FXUS63 KMPX 271805
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
105 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and a few thunderstorms possible this morning with a
  few stronger storms possible across far southern Minnesota
  this afternoon.

- Things will remain fairly quiet with seasonable temperatures
  with the next chance for widespread rain arriving late by the
  weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1136 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

The forecast for afternoon storm development looks to be on
track. An area of clearing this morning over west and south
central Minnesota is beginning to fill in with pockets of
cumulus, which will likely become agitated within the next
couple of hours. The best instability is located across the
areas that have had several hours of clearing, reaching above
1000 J/kg of MUCAPE in many locations already this morning.
Recent CAMS hint that the best forcing for development may be
along the western edge of the stratus line, where differential
heating creates a weak baroclinic zone. The severe threat
remains constrained to portions of southern Minnesota, where
instability and soundings are more supportive of potentially
strong downdrafts capable of wind damage.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

A smidge chilly this morning as temperature obs have reached the
upper 40s for many areas. The northern plains is currently under a
troughing pattern with an embedded shortwave that is over the
Dakotas. Ahead of this low pressure, surface forcing has generated
some showers over western MN. This band of showers will continue to
make its way eastward. For a few hours around sunrise, some patchy
dense fog is possible across north central MN. The forecast today
features a chance of showers and storms and temperatures in the 60s.
The aforementioned line of precip over western MN will continue
eastward and mainly be a nuisance for areas along and west of I-35
before noon. During the afternoon hours, the line of rainfall will
transition to more scattered coverage along with some redevelopment
back across west-central MN as the core of the low reaches southwest
MN. The convective environment does support some potential for
storms storms mainly across the I-90 corridor. CAPE within the mixed
layer looks to reach between 500-1000 J/kg coupled with cool air
aloft with a drier surface layer, could produce a few damaging wind
gusts in the more organized storms. Storm total QPF for today should
equate in the range between a quarter to a half inch.

On Tuesday, upper-level troughing begins to depart east while
ridging builds in the west. A secondary shortwave develops over
Alberta and heads south over MN/WI. Although this system in
particular does look much more disorganized as compared to today`s
wave. Therefore, keeping only a few hundredths of accumulation at
best for Tuesday. High pressure returns on Wednesday and Thursday
which will set us up for a couple of nice days with highs ranging in
the 70s. H85 thermal ridging looks to be quite extensive over the
Rockies however, a shortwave to our east dives over the Great Lakes
and acts as a defensive line to keep even warmer temps well to our
west. This weekend still look to feature a broad troughing pattern
with a series of shortwaves that support the continuation of
mentioning low PoPs through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 105 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Scattered thunderstorms have developed quickly during the last
hour or two across MN. They will become more numerous into the
mid afternoon with some MVFR conditions and gusty winds
accompanying them. TS activity will diminish near sunset.
Another chance of showers will arrive late tonight and linger
into much of Tuesday across WI. MVFR cigs appear likely tomorrow
morning, possibly lingering into the afternoon.

KMSP...TS chances increase after 19Z, then prevail through the
early evening. They may persist a bit after the current TEMPO
indicates and we may need to extend it with later amendments.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts becoming SE.
THU...VFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
FRI...Mainly VFR. Chance -SHRA/MVFR. Wind S 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BED
DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...Borghoff